Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be Rougher than First Predicted

Let’s go back almost exactly 18 years ago, August 29 of 2005. The place New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina slams into the city,

Eighty percent of the city underwater. I can see multiple people up on their rooftop trying to get help people looting the supermarket, but I told you earlier today I didn’t think this it turned out to be Armageddon. I was wrong.

That storm killed about 1800 people left millions homeless and caused damages of over $161 billion. Hurricane Katrina, a bitter reminder of what just one storm can do. This hurricane season we’ve been fairly tranquil in the Atlantic, only a handful of storms. And you may remember that back in May, the National Weather Service was predicting that in the Atlantic basin we’d see 12 to 17 named storms. This season, five to nine hurricanes, so a fairly standard storm season. However, this past week…

…The National Weather Service has upped its forecast…

US Agriculture Department meteorologist Brad Rippey says anyone living within 100 miles of the shores of the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean, etc., should be aware of this change in the forecast.

The National Weather Service has upped its forecast from that original 12 to 17 named storms. The new forecast is 14 to 21. You are the number of hurricanes has been increased from that original range. of five to nine. A number is now six to 11. And the number of major hurricanes has been increased from one to four, up to a range of two to five.

Several reasons for the new forecast. First, this summer’s relentless heat.

This has turned into a truly memorable run of heat.

The world set a record in July for hottest month ever recorded. The heat has not led up during August and Brad Rippey says storms especially hurricanes are fed by heat made stronger by heat and it’s not just atmospheric heat this season.

A lot of that warmth is being driven by incredibly high oceanic temperatures.

Warm waters also can help storms get going and add power to them after they form. And so there are several reasons why the National Weather Service is predicting more Atlantic basin storm activity, stronger activity reasons that include…

…Very high oceanic temperatures in the Atlantic basin. We’ve also got an active African monsoon that is contributing a lot of showers and thunderstorms that move westward into the open Atlantic and have the potential to develop in the future tropical storms and hurricanes.

And conditions are certainly more conducive now for more tropical storms during the second half of what so far has been a pretty tranquil Atlantic storm season.