Brooks Schaffer Market Report for Tuesday September 26

This is the Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

Corn and beans continue to trade range bound with nothing to push them into a new range so far. Harvest continues to pick up steam. Market will also look to the USDA stocks report coming out Friday Sept 29th at noon. This report is supposed to be the final count on old crop stocks. Since USDA’s old crop carryout estimate is a projection and this stocks report is supposed to give us a firm count, sometimes we can see surprises. Any surprise that we get on this report will be taken off or added to the old crop carry in on the October supply and demand report that comes out October 12th at noon. 

USDA’s harvest progress was released at 4pm yesterday and showed corn harvest at 15% compared to 9% last week, 11% last year and five year average of 13% this week. Soybeans were at 12% harvested compared to last week at 5%, last year at 7% and five year average of 11%. 

Harvest results are still very much anecdotal and completely subject to individual interpretation. I would say from what i have seen, bean yields are a little above expectations and corn is a bit below. USDA will give the latest and greatest estimates incorporating the harvest data on Oct 12th. 

On Monday we did get a huge export sale announcement to Mexico of just over 65 million bushels. After a few weeks of disappointing export progress this is a good sign, but it needs to be the first of many not a one off. The recent rains in the Midwest should help keep the Mississippi river levels from falling any further. We need more rains to start adding to water levels and keep exports flowing. 

Energy prices have leveled out the last few trading sessions but it is way too early to see if this is just a temporary leveling out or topping actions. Strong energy prices greatly benefit both corn and soybeans now with the huge growth of renewable diesel demand. Ethanol grind was down last week compared to the week before but are still 9% higher than last year. The Fed agreed to hold interest rates steady but the market is pricing in rates to stay higher longer rather than a quick drop in rates. 

Wheat found a bid after weakness last week. Ukraine has been loading ships out of Odessa despite Russian promises of a blockade. Russia has also made threats to start enforcing their minimum price set earlier last year but they do not seem willing to slow the flow of cheap wheat to be able to enforce it. They need the hard currency too badly. They have renewed attacks on the port facilities at Odessa this week as well.