Brooks Schaffer Market Report for Tuesday April 16

This is the Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

Grain and oilseed markets are still struggling to maintain any direction for long as we continue to bounce within the same trading ranges. We saw strong closes across the board on Friday as metals, energies and grains were all being bought. None of these commodities were able to hold at the highs but all managed respectable closes. This bounce may have been from managed money not wanting to be short or needing profits from commodity short positions to cover losses in the stock market with equities pulling back. We will take a bounce like that however we get it. 

The big news over the weekend was the massive Iranian attack on Israel that was completely stopped by a combination of Israeli and other forces. Iran had telegraphed their intentions very clearly before the attack was launched and immediately afterwards said they considered the matter closed. Many had expected some fireworks in the markets but the Sunday night open of the US markets was without any big reaction. Obviously the market’s consider the matter closed as well. It is clear that neither Israel nor Iran (or anyone in the world) wants a wider war in the Middle East. Israel is weighing their response. 

Monday afternoon, we got the first planting progress update that showed corn was 6% planted compared to 3% last week, 7% this week last year and the 5 year average of 5%. Soybeans were 3% planted compared to the same this week last year and the 5 year average of 1%. We will get planting progress reports every Monday at 4 pm and those will roll right into condition ratings. Market will be watching these updates very closely for signs of any production issues. We do not have enough acres to be able to ignore the progression of the crop. Weather models are still uncertain for the growing season but those will start coming into more focus as well. 

In addition to planting progress, we also got export inspections and the NOPA soybean crush report for March. Corn and bean exports fell within expectations with wheat a bit higher than expectations. NOPA soybean crush set a new all time record monthly crush for any month but it was just a little below expectations. Soybean oil stocks were also a little higher than expectations. Despite being a little below expectations, continuing to set record crush month after month calls USDA into question for leaving domestic usage unchanged. Hopefully we see them catch up on the May supply and demand report. 

The May supply and Demand report will be a big one. It comes out May 10th at 12 noon. It will be our first look at the new crop balance sheets. We will also have a better idea of planting progress and how the crop will start off. USDA will use the 90 million acres they printed on the Prospective Plantings Report. I think the actual number may end up being a little bigger than that when they update it at the end of June. I hope to have some weather related opportunities to price corn before the end of June when USDA releases the Planted Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Report. That will be the next major report after the May WASDE.