This is the Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

Soybeans opened the week Sunday night under additional selling pressure. Last week there were rumors of Chinese purchases that brought some buying into the soy complex that turned to selling after the purchases failed to materialize. Then the bean market hit some technical levels and the selling built momentum. Equities, energies and livestock contracts were down hard to start the week adding pressure to the grains and oilseeds. Wheat opened up strong after the Russian ag ministry lowered their production estimates. They did not lower their estimates much, but the market is thinking losses must be much bigger if they are lowering it at all. Wheat could not hold the gains in the face of the selling pressure from the other markets. Harvest is progressing in the US Plains with better than expected yields. The corn market did not have anything on its own to help prop it up either so the path of least resistance was down. I can say that at least corn and wheat closed off the lows. Cannot say the same thing about beans. 

Now that planting is mostly behind us, the mantra of the market is that rain makes grain. And it keeps raining in the Midwest. The US Climate Prediction center released their monthly temp and precip outlook which was very benign. They see above seasonal temps for the Western US but equal chances for seasonal rains in most of the growing region. On the corn rally, we had anticipated the funds were close to even but they continue to build a bigger short position than expected. In soybeans they are close to even. 

Market was also trading in anticipation of USDA planting progress and our first look at corn crop conditions Monday after the close. USDA estimated 91% of the crop planted compared to 92% anticipated, 83% last week, 95% last year and 89% on average. For soybeans, USDA estimated the crop at 78% planted compared to 80% anticipated, 68% last week, 89% last year and 73% on average. The headline number was corn condition ratings which came out at 75% good/excellent compared to 64% last year. The trade was anticipating around 70% good/excellent with the range of guesses 58% to 79%. That is a very wide range but the actual number was closer to the high end. This initial rating is the 6th best of the last 20 years and the best since 2021. Need to keep in mind that a quarter of the crop has not even emerged yet so next week’s rating will also be as important. USDA will include the first soybean condition ratings on next Monday’s update as well.