Hit or miss rains spread across the Carolinas this past weekend. I’m talking with North Carolina Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis. At my house in Franklin County, we got four inches, and it was a good steady rain throughout most of the day on Saturday, which was a little more than we expected. What are you looking at, and what did you see across the Carolinas, Corey?
“Yeah, Mike, this is really what the doctor ordered for some of those areas that had been so dry over the past month or month and a half. We talked last week, and we were expecting totals of maybe an inch and a half in the Raleigh area, going up to around three inches in parts of eastern North Carolina, the system that we had last week really over performed those expectations. We had about two and a half inches. In Raleigh. Pockets of eastern North Carolina had three to four inches. And then some of the wettest spots, places like Williamston, had almost seven inches of rain total. This was also a good, pretty steady soaking rain event. It started on Thursday night, continued all the way through Saturday. So instead of just getting the heaviest rain over an hour or two. It was spread out a little bit more over a longer time period. So we’re seeing so far is very positive. In the short term, the stream flow levels have jumped back up. They had been very low coming out of June. In the first part of July, soil moisture levels also seem like they’re doing better. One concern when you have this much event, excuse me, one concern when you have this much rain falling after a very dry spell is whether that moisture will even get soaked into the ground. Is the ground so hard that it really won’t take any new moisture? But again, the early returns are promising. We know we still have some hot days ahead of us before a slight cooldown and a better chance of rain later this week. But so far, things look like it’s exactly what we needed to see in some of those very dry areas in the Carolinas.”
Now you’re talking about some of those very dry areas concentrated in eastern North Carolina. Is that right?
“That’s right. The wetted spots seem to be in eastern North Carolina, really, from Wilmington upwards toward the Virginia border, the Elizabeth City area, and like you mentioned, we had some pockets further inland, including over Franklin County. They had some pretty heavy totals as well. Down in South Carolina, it was a little bit more hit or miss. Some places right along coastline, Myrtle Beach, Charleston, had around two inches. But you didn’t have to go far inland from that to find some lower totals as well. So I do expect we’ll see some improvements on the Drought Monitor map this week. But just keep in mind, it may be a little bit more wholesale improvements in North Carolina than we’ll see down in South Carolina based on that coverage.”
What about the Piedmont and western North Carolina? Did they get anything out of this system?
“Well, if you look at the rainfall totals from this event, you can really draw a line right down the middle of North Carolina, pretty much running right through Burlington. That separates those heavier totals of two inches or more to the east and then some pretty low totals further west. One area of concern, severe drought expand last week, is just northwest of the triad, places like Surrey County in Yadkin County and Wilkes County, they had another very dry week. The totals there were next to nothing. So instead of seeing the dry spots in eastern North Carolina on the drought monitor this week, we could see those dry areas really start to pivot westward. And it may be in parts of the mountains that we’re seeing those severe and even extreme drought conditions. But again, looking ahead, we do think we have better chances of good widespread rain later this week into the weekend, so hope in those areas now we’ll see some of those good totals as well.”
Let’s talk about that forecast. Since you mentioned it, what is the chance of getting another good soaker like this out of this next system?
“Well, the National Weather Service has said they think there’s a pretty good chance of even heavy rain potential from the cold front that’s going to move through on Thursday. It’s going to stick with us on Friday, and then maybe even through the weekend. But ahead of this front, you’re going to get a good, solid south westerly flow that brings in some humid air, but also some good moisture to fuel those showers and thunderstorms. So right now, it’s looking like Thursday into Thursday night is our best chance of rain. They’ve got a chance of rain in the forecast pretty much every day through the weekend. And might get a load of this. I’m coming off 100 degree heat for the last couple days, high on Saturday at 84 degrees. How does that sound?”
I’ll take it. I’ll take it. You know, we got some relief for a few days over the weekend, then it shot right back up. So sounds like maybe our weekends are actually going to be the more comfortable. I’m not complaining!
“That’s right. Mike, you know, it looks like today will probably be the last really hot day. Tomorrow, we’re still going to be looking at mid 90s, but by Thursday, down to a high of 90, and then over the weekend, looking at low to mid 80s. So you can dodge those rain showers are going to be out this weekend. I think it’ll be a whole lot more comfortable to be outside than it was this past weekend.”
What I hear you saying, though about this past rain event not going to be too early to call it a drought, buster, am I correct there?
“That’s right, and really, that’s because this drought has been developing for so long. It was always going to take more than just one rain event to really fully get rid of the damage that it’s done. In general, a rule of thumb for the US Drought Monitor is two inches of rain in a week is usually enough to improve by one category on the map. So there may be parts of eastern North Carolina where we’ve seen moderate to severe drought, they could see that one category improvement. But again, you think about places like Columbus County, they had about an inch and a half of rain over the past week. They were in such a deficit that even that inch and a half is not going to do a whole lot to that longer deficit that’s built up so far this summer. So we may see some local improvements, but it’s still going to take a few more events to fully get rid of this drought that has taken the last month or so to set up.”
But to be sure, it was welcomed. We don’t want to give anybody the idea that we would have turned it away.
“Absolutely. Yeah, every little bit of rain. We all often say every drop counts, and when you’re in a drought, that is absolutely the case. So I know some places probably had a little more than they would like. I saw some flooding on the roads out toward Williamston. But again, overall, welcome rain given how dry it had been and how hot it’s been also for the last month.”