USDA economist Bart Kenner works in Kansas City, where these days there is a lot of talk about sports. Bart loves to talk sports all the time. Exports that is, agricultural. Bart’s out there now with trade numbers for the first 11 months of the 2024 fiscal year, October through August, and the figures boil down to this.
“Agricultural exports were $161.3 billion down 3% from the previous year.”
Which is not too bad a performance, especially considering this:
“We are seeing sustained or even increased export volumes, but the value of those exports has been decreasing, and so we see decrease in the total value of agricultural exports.”
This is mostly happening with export values of so-called bulk commodities, such as soybeans, wheat and cotton. Those export values continue to struggle. Bulk product exports are down 14% from a year ago, but Bart Kenner says more exports of high value products are helping make up for the lower bulk product sales.
“We’ve got a 20% increase in tree nuts, 10% increase in exports of prepared and preserved vegetables, 16% increase in the exports of fresh fruits.”
High-value exports are up about 4% from a year ago. One troubling trend on the trade front is the level of US food and agricultural product imports coming into the US from other countries, while the dollar value of US food and ag exports is falling.
“The import value has increased steadily over time and continues to do so.”
Kenner says US ag exports are running about 3% below last year at this time, while the value of foreign agricultural products coming into the US is up by 5%. Several good reasons, though, for the growing imports.
“Great purchasing power by the US consumer, and growing demand for products that are produced elsewhere: year-round produce, distilled spirits, cheeses, and wines and what have you.”
Kenner says the surge in imports and the reduction of exports is creating an ag trade deficit of over $27 billion and growing.