You know, it seems like we’re seeing just more and more of one side of the spectrum or the other. At least, it seems like that’s becoming more and more the norm these days.
“Yeah, we’ve got a term for that at the state climate office. We call that “weather whiplash” because it really does feel like you’re going from one pattern suddenly back to another, and the wet to dry has been the most noticeable over the past couple years. You look at 2024 I think that’s going to be one of the big stories. Obviously, we know the events like Helene that brought heavy rainfall, but we also had some notable droughts in 2024 and just the switches between those dry periods and the wet ones was so abrupt. It was true across eastern North Carolina as well. You know, they did not have the heavy rain or flooding from our tropical season last year, but still out in Greenville, for instance, they had more than three consecutive weeks with no measurable rainfall back in June, and then after that, going into July, August and September, they had some weeks where they were getting rain every single day. So we’ve talked about it before, but you really feel for the farmers, because that is one of the most challenging types of weather to plan for, when you’re going to have those long dry spells followed by rain just about every day.”
Let’s sort of do a reset here. We’re right at the beginning of 2025 Can you give us sort of an overview of where we stand right now as we start off this New Year? I guess, weather wise, moisture wise, looking at the Drought Monitor, where are we right now?
“We mentioned that that rain at the end of December gave a nice reset for parts of western North Carolina, so those areas now pretty much back to near normal conditions, no real deficits to speak of, dating back to the fall at this point, as we head further eastward, that’s where we start to see more of those longer term deficits. Up here across the Piedmont, we’re still looking at four to six inches below normal over the past three months or so in places like Raleigh and Charlotte and down in Columbia, South Carolina, and then even bigger deficits right along the coastline. Wilmington, for instance, is almost nine inches below normal over the past three months. They just keep getting missed by some of these rain events, like the cold fronts that moved through in late December. So on the drought map now, we do still have moderate drought conditions in place, really, from the Charleston area all the way up the coast of North Carolina, and honestly, Mike, there were places there, like Elizabeth city in the Northeast that are right on the verge of severe drought, which is the next category up. We did not make any changes this week in those areas, but suspect if they go through another dry week or two, they will be in that severe drought level. No major impacts associated with that, because we are in the cooler time of the year, but we’re starting to see the stream flow levels decline, some of the groundwater levels decline. Certainly, we want to get some rain in those areas before the end of the season, just so they’re not in too bad a shape as we head into the spring in a couple months.”
You’re right. We’re in the cooler part of the year, and it certainly feels like it right now. Let’s you were talking about the moisture right there. Let’s talk about the temperatures, because it seems like it’s been a while since we’ve seen sustained temperatures this cold. Is this going to last?
Well it looks like it will, Mike, and you’re right. It’s been several years since we’ve seen a sustained cold air pattern in the month of January or in the winter period. You look back to last year 2024 there was only a few days in the middle of January where we were ever really all that cold. The previous winters never had much of that, either. So this pattern we’re going into now reminds me a lot of what we had back in January of 2018 just as we started the New Year that year, we got into a pretty sustained cold pattern, more than a week spent below freezing in places like Raleigh. This year, we’re getting into that colder pattern this weekend, especially Saturday, highs will struggle to get out of the 30s, and we’ll be stuck in the 40s for most of next week. And looking at some of the longer term outlooks, it looks like the second week of January will also be pretty cold, and even the third week of January, we may see that colder weather sticking around. So more cold air this January than we’ve had in several years. And again, thinking back to a similar year in 2018 there were also some shots of wintry weather that January, which is natural when you’ve got several weeks of cold air, certainly at some point you would expect to have some moisture and potentially some wintry weather as well.”
When you say wintry weather, let’s go ahead and break out the S word, that’s snow. Are you saying we might see some?
“Well, Mike, I’m going to break out the F word first. Let’s talk about Freezing rain, because that’s the next most likely. You can air this one on the radio, but we do have a storm system that will be pushing in across western North and South Carolina later this weekend, especially Sunday night into Monday. It looks like based on the track of this system. Now it will be a mostly rain event across the Carolinas, but there is the possibility that overnight on Monday, it could begin as some freezing rain, or even snow flurries mixed with rain right along the Virginia border and the getting into parts of western North Carolina. Beyond that, we do expect we’ll have some reinforcing shots of cold air coming in next week, and especially looking at that mid month time frame, that’s when I do think there is some chance of snow. There are systems that should be coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. If the moisture from those systems reaches far enough north, it should be cold enough for snow. So I think we could at least see some flurries. Then tough to pin down an exact time frame, or obviously any amounts at this point, but I am certainly watching that second and third week of January, because I think that’s when the pattern may be the most favorable. And obviously, after several weeks of being this cold, the ground will definitely be cold enough for anything to stick.”
And we’ll be talking between now and then to get a more up to date forecast as we get towards the end of the month. And for one, I wouldn’t mind seeing a few flurries out there. I would, I would be okay with that. You know, as long as it comes day or two, then gone, I’m okay, and as long as I don’t have to shovel anything.
“That’s right, Mike, that’s the perfect type of snow. You know, we’re coming up on the 25 year anniversary of that January 2000 blizzard in the Raleigh area, with more than 20 inches. I don’t think a lot of folks are eager to relieve the aftermath of that. When the kids were home from school for two weeks, they had to shovel the driveways time and again, because we got so much snow that month. So yeah, I would gladly take one of those 345, inch events that is pretty to Watch fall, but is gone within a few days.”