USDA reports the nation’s farmers are off to a fast start this planting season. Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University, says that could impact the supply-side factors in the May reports, but it seems unlikely.

“One of the things I’ll be watching for here is, given that we’re getting more corn area from the March planting intentions report, do we see a little bit of an adjustment in that trend line yield given the expansion of acres? But, given the start here, maybe USDA holds the line at 181 bushels per acre there. So, I’m mainly looking at what they are going to say on the demand side there. I figure the supply side; they’re going to stay close to what they had.”

So, the Iowa State University number cruncher expects the May WASDE report to maintain supply estimates but is closely watching demand. Hart anticipates a decrease in new crop soybean exports to China due to tariffs but notes the potential for redirection to other markets. This could all show up in the May WASDE soybean export number.

“That’s going to be the fun number there. If you think about this year, we would be looking at China taking up a little over 800 million bushels there. And so, it’s more the case to me of, okay, they’re going to say, “Yep, China. Probably not taking that given the 125 percent tariff that we’re facing as we look over there.” So, it’s more a matter of, okay, how do we redirect at least some of that 800 million bushels to other markets? And then what do you assume is lost because of that? I do believe we’ll see that export number come down. The question will be how much?

USDA has indicated it will use the trade and tariff policies in place the day of the report to calculate export demand across the planet. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will be released on May 12.