This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

Bulls need to be fed and there has not been much for the grain bulls in a while. Corn crop conditions came out this week at 69% good/excellent which was right in line with expectations. That is a one point improvement from last week and compares to 75% last year. We got our first look at soybean crop conditions this week and they started off at 67% good/excellent compared to 68% expected. We did not have soybean conditions this early last year but the first rating we got last year was 72% good/excellent on 6/9. Corn planting progress came in at 93% complete which was right in line with expectations. That compares to 87% last week, 93% last year and 93% on average. Planting started off very fast but the pace has slowed down and some areas are going to struggle to get the last of the crop in the ground. Soybean planting still remains ahead of average but no longer a whole week ahead like last week. Soybean planting was estimated at 84% complete vs 86% expected. That compares to 76% last week, 77% last year, and 80% on average. 

The weather is not giving a lot of fuel to the bulls with rains forecast to fall over most of the major growing regions in the next 7 days. There are still areas without full moisture profiles, but if they keep getting timely rains they will not need to pull from the subsoil. There are more areas of the country being hurt by too much water than too little at this point. Early season condition ratings have a very low correlation with final yield but the market will be watching for trends and trying to understand the weather pattern trends as well. 

We continue to get bullish demand news with export inspections for corn above expectations and we have had several flash sales since the last commitments report last Friday. USDA gave us their April US soybean crush report which came out marginally higher than expected and soybean oil stocks were sharply lower than expected. 

We need something to slow the funds selling. We need a headline on trade or biofuel policy from the administration or a weather threat. Until we get some bullish headline the market is going to be destined to drift and that means lower right now. We are going to get USDA’s June supply and Demand report on June 12th at noon and then the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage on June 30th.