The rains at the end of last week set us up in really good shape for this week. And to get a complete look at that, talking with Corey Davis from the State Climate Office of North Carolina right now. And I believe you had said last week, Corey, that already we had seen a big dent in the amount of drought in North and South Carolina. What did the rains at the end of last week do to that?
“That’s right, Mike, the month of May just proved to be a wet one. It was the ninth wettest may on record in North Carolina. And of course, the month also ended with another pretty good round of rain back last Friday, same area saw another two to three inches of rain from that event. So as a result, we have seen some more improvements on the US Drought Monitor map. I know a lot of folks are probably saying, hey, what drought? And that’s what we’re saying when we look at the map. This week, we have made some really nice improvements. Any of those abnormally dry areas west of I-95 in North and South Carolina are now back to just near normal. And then some of those areas where we’ve seen that lingering dryness and drought right along the coastline, we have seen some improvements there. Especially down in South Carolina, there have been some severe drought. In places like Horry County, it’s back to just moderate drought this week. And then in northeastern North Carolina, we talk about this area a lot. Mike, very shallow soils there shallow groundwater reserves. The groundwater levels are a little bit low in the Elizabeth City area right now, but all it’s going to take is probably one more good rain event, and that will get those areas back to normal as well.”
Speaking of one more good rain event, I think we may have that coming, but we’ll talk about that in just a minute. Now, we’re continuing this theme of rain, starting last I guess Sunday, this past Sunday, was the official beginning of the 2025, hurricane season. And I want to pick your brain a little bit on this. We do this each year about this time. I’d like to get your outlook on the hurricane season. What? What do you see coming down the pike for us?
“Mike, you know, we go back one year ago, going into the 2024 hurricane season, that felt like a slam dunk forecast. All of the outlooks were calling for above normal activity. All of these environmental conditions seem to be leaning in that direction. Some of the forecasts were calling for near record activity, and even though we didn’t end up with those record number of storms in the Atlantic, it was still an active season overall. Now, by comparison, there’s a lot less confidence in this year’s outlook. Most forecasts are still leaning in that above average direction, but nowhere near as confident as they were last year. The National Weather Service, for instance, they’re giving a 60% chance of above normal activity and a 30% chance of near normal activity. And when you look at their forecast, they’re calling for 13 to 19 named storms. The recent average is 14 storms. So again, it looks like at least near normal, maybe above normal this year, but we can’t say that with the same confidence that we had last season.”
Well, exactly right. And I remember as well, last year we had a little fun, and you, you were putting a bet on which named storm you thought might be the worst one of the year? Well, we don’t have to tell anybody in the Carolinas which one it was. My question. Did you actually guess the H name last year?
“Well, Mike said there’s a couple names that I remember putting forward last year. One of those was Milton, and you laughed at me. You said, ‘No, that’s a nerdy name that can’t be a bad storm.’ And of course, Milton was a big one, especially along the west coast of Florida, but the one that I think me and you and pretty much everybody that looked at that list of names last year, agreed on was Francine. It not only does it sound a lot like Fran and Francis, which had both been bad storms, but also those F named storms have historically been rough in the Carolinas. So I think we put our money on that one. Francine ended up being not so damaging of a storm when it hit the coast of Louisiana instead. Of course, it was two names later, Helene, that ended up being the worst storm. And I’m a little disappointed, Mike. I should have taken that history lesson myself, because back in 1968 Helene was a category four storm along the coast of North Carolina. I should have expected in 2024 it would be a category four from the Gulf that would end up being our worst storm.”
And there’s a lot of folks in North Carolina and in South Carolina, if you think back on H names, wow, they have a history here. Going back to, I think it was 1952 or 53 with Hazel, which still lives in infamy. And then, of course, Hugo came several years ago, and just a swath of destruction right on up to Charlotte, if I recall, right? So the H names have a history in the Carolinas.
“That’s right. And one reason that we looked at that part of the alphabet last year is because those are usually the names getting into at the peak of the season. By late August, early to mid-September. We expect, with that much activity last year, we may progress through the alphabet A little bit quicker, so we might get to some of those names sooner. But again, overall, I think we know those letters when we get to the F, G, H, even I with storms like Isabel and Irene, those are a lot of times the ones to watch for.”
So let’s talk about some of the names that you see on the list for this year that jump out of you, out at you. We’ve had some discussion about interesting names in the past. What do you see on this year’s list?
“Well, of course, in the Atlantic, we recycle the same list every six years. So the names that we’re using this year in 2025 are mostly the same as we used back in 2019 there is one exception to that hurricane Dorian that had a big impact in eastern North Carolina. That name was retired and replaced with Dexter. So when we get to the D letter of the alphabet, yeah, see what Dexter can do. The name right after that, Erin is a storm that folks right along the Outer Banks may remember. There have been some Erins that were close calls for those areas in the past, and then once they get to kind of that meat of the alphabet, we’ve got Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, we’ll see what any of those storms might bring. But there’s one that really stands out to me, and this is going back a ways. The J name storm this year is Jerry. Now, this was not a very strong storm, but back in 1995 there was a tropical storm, Jerry that moved in from the south. That’s the wettest week I can remember, Mike, growing up in the Triad. It seemed like it just poured buckets for days from Jerry. So I really hope this year’s Jerry is not a throwback to the one we had 30 years ago.”
If we have a Jerry, do we have a Tom this year?
“Good question. But the T name this year is Tanya, so maybe Tanya and Jerry could be our interesting combination.”
Just for clarification, is that Aaron with an A or with an E?
“It is ERIN, and the first name on the list this year is Andrea. Now that is a storm that we’ve seen in the past. Again, we’ll recycle these lists. Every six years there have been subtropical streams that have formed right off our coastline in recent years. So that’s the name that will be familiar, the same with the B name, Barry, and the C name, Chantal. So again, those storms have never made it quite to that strong and damaging potential to be retired. That’s why we see them over and over again.”
Let’s take a look at our short-term forecast. Now, what do you see? I think more rain on the way, right?
“That’s right. We’ve been in that active pattern over the last few weeks that continues on through the weekend. Now, over the last couple of days, we’ve seen some pretty good rain, especially in those eastern areas that was a non-tropical low pressure system that was moving up the coast. We’ll still see some lingering showers through the day as we get some wrap around moisture around that system, and then it looks like we’ll have our hottest day of the season so far tomorrow, highs in the low 90s across much of eastern North and South Carolina. Cold front will move through on Saturday night. That will knock down our temperatures a couple degrees, but we’re still going to keep that chance of showers and storms in the forecast through early next week. So again, good news for some of those eastern areas and the farmers there that are looking for a little bit more rainfall. Not so great news for the farmers who really need to get out in the fields right now. But one also bit of good news, Mike, is that the crops that have already been planted, that are been growing for a few weeks now, are in really good shape. The peanuts down in South Carolina, the corn and soybeans in North Carolina, all ahead of those five-year average targets. So again, farmers not too happy with all the rain we’ve gotten, but definitely better than where we were last year, as we were on the verge of that flash drought.