This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

The June USDA Supply and Demand report is usually a nonevent and despite our hopeful expectations, this year was no exception. USDA typically does not make any changes to new crop supply or demand. Sometimes there are changes to old crop demand as we are now two and a half months from the end of the marketing year at the end of August. This year, corn exports have been a very hot topic. We have already reached USDA’s estimate for the whole year with the two and a half months remaining and we have averaged 37 million bushels per week for the last four weeks. Analysts have been calling for USDA to raise exports by anywhere from 50 to 150 million bushels. The only major changes USDA made on this report was to raise corn exports by 50 million bushels and they also raised new crop wheat exports by 25 million bushels. This tightens up old crop corn carryout down to 1.365 billion bushels. They carried that 50 million bushel decrease in old crop carryout to new crop bringing new crop carryout down to 1.750 billion bushels from 1.8 last report. On their world estimates, USDA left their South American estimates unchanged and tightened up world corn and wheat carryout slightly and raised soybean carryout by a little.

The market shrugged off these changes and went right back to trading weather, trying to digest headlines and positioning for the Planted Acreage and Stocks Report coming out June 30th. Weather models are run to update four times a day and this time of year the market is watching each model run and pricing the new changes in. There is still no concrete weather threat anywhere. The eastern belt remains too wet and they are struggling to finish planting. There is still a good bit of the western belt with dry subsoil but they have gotten enough timely rains to keep the crop developing. Some heat would be welcomed in much of the country. Many of the models are still hinting at a high pressure ridge forming, but they have been for weeks now and keep kicking it further and further down the road. There has been too much rain in much of the Plains as they try to get wheat harvested and spring wheat conditions  have started off very low due to dryness (only 53% good/excellent compared to last year at 72%). 

The next big report comes on June 30th. We have been worried about a big increase in corn acres due to the fast start to planting and price ratios between corn and beans and corn and cotton. However, there are some important production areas that were slowed by excessive rains so planting pace fell off toward the end. Analysts and research firms will now start focusing on estimating planted acreage for corn to position ahead of the USDA report at the end of the month. 

Markets are still a bit numb to trade headlines. Administration officials have indicated there will be more trade deals announced next week, but they have been saying that for so long now they are not believed anymore. I expect most of those to be put off until closer to the deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause that comes at the end of this month. Trump did announce a deal was reached with China, but it seems to be more of a framework than a deal. There have been no specific ag commodities mentioned. The Chinese did not abide by the trade deal they struck that did have specific amounts of commodities, the market is not going to react to a framework that does not even mention ag commodities. News did break on Thursday that the EPA will release their US Renewable Volume Obligations which is one piece of their biofuel policy we have been waiting for on Friday June 12th. The other pieces we are still waiting on are the small refinery exemptions and the 45z rules that are tied up in the so called big beautiful bill in Congress.