To summer or not to summer, that is the question right now. Are we in it or ain’t we? Corey Davis, the Assistant State Climatologist for North Carolina, has been hearing that question over and over. I can’t determine whether we’ve started or not. It’s warmer right now, Corey, so it feels like it. What say ye?

“Well, Mike, you know the calendar says that we are in climatological summer. We’re now about two weeks into the month of June, but it’s really only been so far this week that we’ve had more typical summer, like temperatures, lots of upper 80s, and a few areas right along the coast have seen some low 90s as well. So you’re right. I’ve been getting this question from all sorts of different people all across the Carolinas. Some of them seem to think it’s a pretty early start to summer. And if you look at the Raleigh area, you would be tempted to say that as well. The first 90-degree day there was in the first week of April, very unusually warm for that time of the year. But since then, we haven’t had as many 90-degree days if you go down to the Wilmington area instead, their first 90-degree day was back on May the 16th. That’s pretty much spot on with when they usually hit that mark for the first time every year. But since then, they’ve only had six days in the 90s. So that also might lead you to think maybe it’s been a delayed start to summer. I would say, if we just compare against the past couple of years, it really is somewhere right in the middle. Last year, 2024 we started getting those regular 90-degree days back in the middle of May. By this point in June, we were seeing close to 100-degree temperatures in some areas. That was definitely an early kind of super charged start to the summer season. Then you go back two years ago in 2023 it was actually pretty cool for most of May and June. Some areas like the triad, did not see their first 90-degree day until the first week of July. So compared to that year, we’re definitely on the early side. But again, overall, think probably somewhere in the middle is the best way to describe where we’re at in terms of this summer progression.”

Speaking of where we’re at, where are we looking right now in moisture? I think we’re in pretty good shape right now for soil moisture, correct?

“Yeah, one reason that we haven’t seen as much heat over the past couple weeks is because we’ve seen so many cool, cloudy, rainy days, and that rain has really made a mark across the Carolinas over the last week, especially in eastern areas, these places that had been in drought coming through the spring, I’ll highlight a couple places for you. One is down in Horry County, South Carolina. These areas had been in severe drought as recently as the last week of May. Over the past week, they saw three to five inches of rain down in Horry County, and they’re actually drought free on the US Drought Monitor map this week. So goes to show how much difference that recent rainfall has made. Another spot that we’ve talked about in recent weeks is Onslow County, North Carolina, the Jacksonville area. They were just hammered with heavy rain during the month of May. It was another wet week there, especially last Thursday and Friday, another three to three and a half inches in some spots. So if you look over the past 30 days, from the middle of May to the middle of June, there are parts of Onslow County that have seen almost 20 inches of rainfall, just extreme rain, especially considering we haven’t had any tropical systems. So that is definitely a lot just to see from your run of the mill, showers and thunderstorms.”

That’s got to make for some happy farmers assuming that they have been able to get out into the fields in timely fashion. Crop reports are looking really good right now.

“They are, and you’re right, Mike, one of the big concerns for farmers has just been getting out into the fields with so many wet, rainy days over the past couple of weeks, this week has looked a lot better, and we do see that reflected on the crop progress and condition reports. Overall crop condition is in really good shape. Looking at things like the corn and cotton, mostly good and even some excellent conditions reported in North Carolina, we also see that with the crop planting, even though there have been some wet days where the farmers couldn’t get in the fields, things like peanuts, soybeans, sweet potatoes, all being planted ahead of the five-year average pace. And one of the best stories that we see on the crop progress report this week is that corn is starting to get into that silking phase. Of course, that’s a time in its development when it needs a lot of moisture in order to let those silks grow and the kernels form. And with the rain that we’ve had recently, soil moisture is in great shape. And I think that that’ll definitely be a better situation for the corn than last year, when we were starting to get into that heat wave and flash drought at this point in June.”

I think they’ll take just about anything besides that. And speaking of what they’re going to get, let’s take a look at the forecast. What do we see for the next few days?

“We’ll have some more of those summerlike temperatures, really over the next week. Most afternoons, we can expect highs in the upper 80s, maybe some low 90s mixed in as well. But also see more of those rain chances. And a big reason for that is just the overall weather pattern this time of the year. One of the big weather features that we talk about is the Bermuda high. It’s this broad high-pressure system tends to circulate out across the wetland, and as it creeps closer to our coastline, it brings in a heat of warm and moist air. With that moisture, we get those chances of daily showers and thunderstorms, and we’ll have that basically every day over the next week, maybe a little bit better chances this weekend, on Saturday and Sunday. So some of those wet areas can probably expect to see a little bit more rain. And for the outdoor plans out there, definitely want to have an umbrella and a shelter nearby, because you will probably see some showers and storms out there just about every day.”

And speaking of the Atlantic, we are in hurricane season now…any activity out there be concerned about?

“So not right now, and one reason is because the upper level winds are a little bit stronger. That increases the wind shear across the basin and makes it tougher for those storms to get started. I will say that it’s not unusual to not have any activity at this point in June last year, it wasn’t until the third week of June that we saw the first name storm, same story the year before that. So we are only a couple weeks into the season at this point but do expect to see that activity, ramp up especially as we had further into July, August, and of course the peak of the season in September.”