It’s been about a week since Hurricane Erin came and went on the Carolina coast. I’ve got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, what has been some of the damage that Hurricane Erin gave to the Carolinas?
“Well, you know, Kyle, we talked last week that Erin, for the most part, was just going to be a close call, but there were some of those coastal areas that felt more of the impacts from that storm as it moved off our coastline last week. Like we talked about then, it looks like some of the storm surge, especially on those east-facing beaches in the North Carolina coastline — that was probably going to be one of the big impacts. And last Thursday night, we did have, up in Duck in the northern Outer Banks, the ocean reached seven feet above sea level. That was actually the fifth-highest crest they’ve ever seen there. It was on par with what we had from storms like Hurricane Dennis back in 1999. So that definitely showed the power — the potential — for impacts from Erin, and last week, it certainly was a strong hurricane at a Category 2 as it moved offshore.”
“But as we look especially over this past week and what the damage assessment and cleanup has looked like, I think we got off pretty easy. For the most part, things could have been a whole lot worse. We know that there were stretches of Highway 12 up and down the Outer Banks that were closed off because of the over wash and because of some of the sand and water on the road there. But the North Carolina Department of Transportation was able to get that entire stretch of Highway 12 reopened by this past Tuesday. Really a remarkable job on their part, knowing that’s a 50-some-mile stretch of road — to totally reopen it, get all that cleaned up over the course of just a few days.”
“And then looking at some of the structural damage — again, I think we got off pretty easy. The initial assessments I’ve seen are showing around 80 different homes and businesses, mainly in places like Rodanthe and Buxton, sustained some sort of damage from Erin. But certainly, that number could have been a lot higher, and that damage could have been a lot worse. You know, if you looked at some of the drone shots — some of those homes that were not just out in the water — they had the ocean lapping up under the pilings. Just a miracle that we did not see any of those crash down into the water during the storm. And for the most part, it seems like that cleanup has progressed really well over this past week.”
Well, that’s good news for a lot of people on the coastline. But weather in general — it’s been kind of a mixed bag here lately. You know, you get the occasional rain, you get temperatures in the 80s in the afternoons, highs in the 50s overnight. Talk a little bit about that.
“Yeah, you’re right. We have seen a mixed bag, especially with that rainfall over the past week. You go down along the coast of South Carolina — there are some areas like Charleston that have seen a really wet week. Charleston had almost three inches in one hour last Friday, more than five inches in total over the past seven days. Nobody down there is going to be talking about how cool and dry it’s been — they’re going to be talking about this wet weather that they’ve seen.”
“As you head further north across most of North Carolina, especially central and eastern North Carolina, it has been a different story. Basically, no rain at all over the past seven days. But with that said, Kyle, that has not been a huge problem so far. We were so wet earlier this summer and even coming into August that I think in a lot of places, it’s a relief to have some dry weather. Certainly, the farmers have been telling us that in North Carolina this week. In a few places, we’re starting to hear about some of the soybeans and the cotton showing a little bit of that leaf wilt — maybe starting to get some of that dry stress creeping in. But also, the farmers are saying that this dry weather has been a nice chance for them to get out in the field and start picking that corn that, as we talked about, had such a banner growing season this year. So again, I think a nice dry week was a relief for most folks in North Carolina.”
Now, we were talking earlier — like you were seeing a lot of 80 degrees, especially places in Charleston. They’re not talking about that; they’re talking about five inches of rain in a day. But talk about — just in general — is fall coming faster than we expected it to?
“Well, you know, sometimes we’ll talk about a ‘false fall,’ and that feels like the situation that we’re in now. Even earlier this week, we had a reminder that we’re not out of the summer just yet. Back on Monday, we had a lot of upper 80s, near 90-degree temperatures — including in Raleigh — but over these past couple days, we’ve seen that cooler high-pressure system that’s built in from the north, that’s knocked those high temperatures back in a lot of areas into the upper 70s.”
“We will see a brief warmup today and tomorrow, but again, it looks like another nice fall-like weekend in store — especially as we head into the Labor Day holiday. But looking ahead a little bit, the forecasts — as we’re looking especially into mid- and late September — are showing more likely to be above-normal temperatures. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean 90 degrees, but it also doesn’t mean 70s. I think we probably will see at least the mid- to upper 80s as we head further into September. So, don’t put those summer clothes back in the closet just yet. Don’t get those boots and mittens out quite yet either. I think it’s still going to be a while before we firmly settle into a fall-like pattern.”
It might be one of those things where you keep the mittens in the car just in case the temperature dips all of a sudden.
“That’s right, yeah. And you know, we saw — especially yesterday morning — some low temperatures down in the mid- to upper 60s. We previewed this a week ago — kind of that first crisp air, the nice first taste of fall for the season. So, we’ll see some more of that, I’m sure, over the next few weeks and months. But again, it probably won’t be until late September or early October until we can count on pretty regular temperatures that cool.”
All right, let’s take a brief look at the tropics. Do we have any storms that may possibly give the Carolinas some issues?
“Well, you know, we saw Hurricane Erin move off our coastline last week. We’ve actually seen one other named storm in the Atlantic in the past seven days. That was Tropical Storm Fernand. This was one of those systems that we talked about a week ago — was kind of following in the footsteps of Erin — but fortunately, it stayed further off to the east and then made that curve off to the north.”
“So, Fernand really had no effects on land at all, and it is now weakening and fizzling out across the northern Atlantic. The Hurricane Center is now monitoring one other system. This storm hasn’t even moved over the Atlantic yet — it is still over Africa right now — but it looks like, as it moves out over the eastern Atlantic later this weekend, say by Sunday, it may start to intensify a little bit. Maybe not even into a tropical storm, but it may get its act together a little bit more. So, needless to say, with that storm being so far out at this point, there is no guarantee at all that it will even develop or have any impacts. But as we head into the month of September, late this week, we will keep an eye on that system and just see where it decides to go.”
Well, we got college football coming up — starting in full this weekend — and they need to know: What do they need to wear out to the tailgate and to the ball games?
“Well, Kyle, I can’t think of a college football kickoff weekend that’s been as nice as what we’ve got in store, especially on Saturday. Again, some areas could be a little bit warmer — maybe mid- to upper 80s, especially in parts of eastern North and South Carolina — but we’re looking at a lot of high temperatures right around 84 [to] 85 degrees, mostly sunny skies. You can definitely leave that rain jacket and leave that umbrella at home — you will not need it this weekend because it is going to be dry and just warm enough that you should be able to get away with some shorts and a T-shirt, but not too hot that you’ll be overwhelmed out in the stands.”
“And like we talked about, as we move later into the weekend, we’ll get a cold front coming through — no real chance of rain from that front — but that will knock our temperatures back a few degrees, and we’ll be right around 80 degrees on Sunday. And then into the Labor Day holiday on Monday — absolutely beautiful weather as we finish up the month of August. And then the first part of September doesn’t look too bad either. Some more of those 80-degree days, possibly some upper 50s for nighttime temperatures again. So, it will certainly feel like fall — and feel like football weather — as we head through the next week.”