So, it continues to be a dry Carolinas. Over the last week or so, we have not gotten any substantive rain. Over the last week, got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, is the drought getting worse than we were at last week?
“Well, Kyle, this is where we’ll start with the bad news this week — and yes, we are seeing expanding drought across the Carolinas. Just to put this in some context for you: When we look over the past 30 days since the end of August, most of North and South Carolina have had less than an inch of rain, and a good chunk of the Carolinas have had less than half an inch over that time. Looking at Upstate South Carolina, places like Greenville have only had about a quarter inch. Parts of the Sandhills of North Carolina are under half an inch. And then as we get toward the northeastern part of North Carolina, we are seeing a lot of those lower totals as well. So that’s where we’re primarily seeing that expanding moderate drought this week.”
“If you’re in the Raleigh area, you may be seeing some signs of dryness — maybe your lawn is turning a little bit brown, maybe some of those garden plants are not growing as quickly — but you’ve got to feel like this drought is closing in on you from all sides. Because that’s exactly what we’re seeing. We’ve got some drought now up along the Virginia border, some up in the northeastern part of the state as close as Rocky Mount, and then also some just to the south and across South Carolina. On the South Carolina side, it’s now growing in places like Florence County, Horry County, toward the Myrtle Beach area. So again, a lot more widespread drought and dryness than we had even one week ago.”
So, is it fair to say that the Carolinas haven’t seen any substantive rain for multiple days since July? Would that be a fair assessment?
“Yeah, you know, some areas picked up a little bit of rain that first week or so of August. But when we look at things like groundwater levels and soil moisture levels, we see a really steady decline since early August. We also see that confirmed on some of the crop progress reports that USDA puts out. This week, that report is showing 68% of North Carolina with topsoil moisture rated as short or very short. The last time we had that much shortage of topsoil moisture in the state was last November, going into last fall’s drought.”
“And we know that ag is sustaining a lot of the impacts from this current drought and this expanding drought. In recent weeks, we’ve talked about especially some of those late-planted or late-season crops, like the soybeans and the cotton that just need a little bit more rain to finally finish up — and unfortunately, they’re just not getting it. What we’re seeing, especially down in South Carolina this week, is that more of that cotton crop is showing in poor or very poor condition. About 40% overall is now getting down in those kinds of dire levels. So that’s the bad news, Kyle — it has been dry. But I think there is better news, and that we are right on the cusp of a pattern change. It is about to turn wet in the Carolinas over the next few days.”
I was getting ready to say, I’ve seen over the forecast at least a 30 to 50% chance over here in the Triangle. So what’s it going to look like for the next week or so? Are we going to get some rain — possibly some, like, inch, two inches of rain? Tell us more about that.
“Yeah. First, we should say that this is a very complex forecast. There are a lot of moving parts here, so things probably can and will change over the next few days. But just to paint the picture as it looks right now: First, we’ve got a cold front that’ll be moving in — especially over the next day or so. Looks like this will be a pretty slow-moving system. So as it moves across the Carolinas, we should see some pretty widespread rainfall beginning tonight, and especially through the day on Saturday.”
“You know, we’ve had so many of those picture-perfect college football Saturdays over the last few weeks. Well, this week is not going to be one of them. We are looking at widespread rain chances, maybe even some thunderstorm chances this coming Saturday. It looks like those rain chances will continue at least through the day, if not through the afternoon on Sunday as well. As we get into Monday, that’s when we start to get even more complexity to the forecast — and that’s because of what’s going on in the tropics right now.”
“We’ve already got Tropical Storm Humberto. It’s pretty far off to our east. But a little bit closer to home, down around the Bahamas, there’s another system that the National Hurricane Center is watching and expecting it will become Tropical Storm Imelda. Again, that one is a little bit closer to us. Already we’re seeing more of a trend in the forecasts that are bringing that storm up the Carolina coastline — possibly a Monday or Monday night impact on the South Carolina coast.”
“As we get further beyond that, again, things get even more cloudy — both figuratively and literally — but it looks like some of the forecasts are showing some random moisture from that system that could stick around through most of next week. So you’re right, Kyle — we could be an inch or two of rain just through Saturday, but even more rain potentially beyond that. Again, not to paint this as gospel, because things can change. Some of the forecasts I’ve seen already are showing possibly 8 to 10 inches of rain in spots, especially down across South Carolina, if that next tropical system makes its way here next week.”
I believe I just heard a lot of farmers going, ‘Thank you for the rain,’ which is very rare around these parts. You’re talking about the system in the Bahamas — there’s another one a little farther east that a lot of models are saying could form into another storm. Is there a possibility, maybe in a week or so, that could be giving us some issues as well?
“Well, I think this is a good reminder that as quiet as the tropics were even two to three weeks ago, they have definitely woken up. This was looking like it might be an inactive season for a while — especially when we passed that peak of the season earlier this month and there were no storms active for several weeks. But over the last few weeks, we’ve seen Major Hurricane Gabrielle form. We’re now looking at Humberto out there, and again, it’s expected to become a hurricane, possibly even a major hurricane later this weekend.”
“Luckily, with that system, it looks like it will stay off our coastline. But one reason why may be that this system is forming a little bit closer — and that may kind of kick it back out to sea. Certainly, the one down over the Bahamas is the one that is worth monitoring most closely right now, and I especially encourage folks to keep an eye on your local forecast through the weekend and early next week, just to understand what those hazards could be in your area.”
One thing we’ve learned over the last couple months, especially here in the Triangle area when Chantal came through: If it says ‘flash flood warning,’ believe it — and make sure you’re not driving through any standing water. But we’re talking about rain, possibly one or two inches. How’s the rest of the week going to be looking?
“Well, we’re looking at least at a temperature change, and that is one of the most confident aspects of this forecast.
“Earlier this week, we’ve seen some upper 80s, even low 90s in spots. It’ll still be warm and humid this afternoon, and you may see some of those pop-up showers a little bit later today. But as we get into Saturday, we will be socked in with clouds, and we’ll see more of that rain moving in. Looks like highs will be in the low 80s Saturday and Sunday, possibly in the upper 70s — again, with more rain chances by Monday. So those are the big stories to watch: the rain this weekend from that cold front, and then any tropical impacts that we could see — especially beginning on Monday and continuing through the middle of next week.”