This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at brooks@palmettograin.com or 843-540-4540.
Last week we had a lot of new info to trade and at least something to talk about. This week, not so much. The government shutdown enters the sixth day. We did not get the CFTC commitment of traders’ report on Friday to know what the funds’ positions in the market are, or the crop progress report on Monday to gauge how far through harvest we are. We will not get any flash sales reported if foreign buyers buy grain or oilseeds from us.
We did get export inspections reported Monday morning. The USDA inspectors are considered critical, so we will still load out and inspect grain exports. That is the only data we will get on exports from official sources. But that only tells what is being loaded right now, not what is being sold for future delivery. The cash market will likely give us hints if some big or unexpected new purchases were made by a foreign country, but there’s no guarantee it will be timely or accurate.
The market would be positioning for the big World Agricultural Supply and Demand monthly report that was scheduled for this Thursday, Oct. 9, but USDA has postponed it indefinitely. It will likely be canceled, and the data will be released in the November report—if we get it. It is scheduled for Nov. 10.
The October report is a big one since it incorporates actual harvest data. The harvest reports we get are mostly anecdotal. Corn yields are being reported lower than expected in a lot of areas, but we don’t know by how much. Many expected bean yields to hold near current estimates, but what we are hearing now is the beans have dried down so fast there are many being cut at 10% and less. There will be some yield loss from lower moisture levels. The Midwest still has a very dry bias, so moisture levels will continue to drop. There are harvest reports indicating corn coming out of the field at 13% now as well.
The monsoonal rains have not started in earnest in Brazil yet. There were some early rains and some acres planted, but the bulk of acres will wait for more widespread rains. They are not behind yet, but the window is closing for the crop to be planted early.
Markets have been flat and boring for quite some time. I see nothing to indicate that is going to change anytime soon. The market will have to rely on private analysts for harvest progress and yields until we get the government data coming again.