Well, as we get deeper into October, the fall weather is starting to grab hold here in the Carolinas. We’ve got state Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, is this cooler weather here to stay, or are the days of 80-plus-degree weather in the rearview mirror?

“Well, Kyle, you know, you wouldn’t have thought so earlier this week because we were very much in the 80s — almost summer-like temperatures in some areas. It made it up to 86 for a high in Raleigh back on Tuesday, and we still saw those 80-degree temperatures hanging around through Wednesday. But we’ve seen a strong cold front push through over the last day or so that has brought in some much cooler, more crisp, fall-like weather. This afternoon, we’re expecting highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s in most areas, and we’ll start to see more of those nighttime lows getting down into the upper 40s and low 50s — very much what you would expect for this time of year.”

“It’s worth noting the average high temperatures here a week or two into October are right around 75 degrees. So early this week, we were five to 10 degrees warmer than that. Over the next couple of days, we’ll be running about five degrees cooler than that. But you asked about whether we are officially done with summer. We’ve at least passed what I call the 2019 threshold. 2019 was one of our record warmest starts to October. In the first week of that month, we had high temperatures well into the 90s all across the Carolinas, even in some western areas. That was the latest we’ve ever seen that warm weather on record. Now that we’re past that first-week mark of October, it would basically be unheard of to see anything that warm — upper 80s to low 90s. So, I think we can safely say that we’re settling into fall, and again, we’re definitely feeling that more fall-like weather over the next few days.”

So, with the cool weather, hopefully we should be getting some rain and precipitation in the forecast. But unfortunately, I understand it’s going to be another dry week ahead?

“Yeah, we’re coming off a dry week, and that’s pretty typical for this time of year, especially when you get some of these cooler, less humid air masses building in. And really, this is the sort of pattern we’ve been in for almost two months. Any of the cold fronts we’ve seen haven’t brought a lot of moisture, especially east of the mountains.”

“This past week was another good example. Some of our mountain areas in western North Carolina picked up about an inch of rain, but east of there, most spots had basically no rain at all. As a result, we’ve now seen more expansion of drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor map and even the introduction of severe drought. This is the first time since back in the spring that we’ve been dealing with severe drought in eastern North and South Carolina. So, it’s kind of bookending the growing season in these spots. Luckily, we had enough rain in between that I think most of the farmers were able to make it through the bulk of this growing season pretty well.”

Well, you’re talking about some areas starting to see severe drought. What impact does severe drought have on farmers here in the Carolinas?

“Well, typically when we’re getting to this severe drought level, this is the second most severe drought category on the U.S. Drought Monitor. That tells us we’ve been in this drier pattern for a while. It’s now going on two months since some eastern areas first got into this dry spell. For one, that means our surface water conditions are getting really dry. We’re seeing that this week in places like the Tar River Basin in eastern North Carolina — some really low stream flows there. This isn’t just in the tributaries or smaller creeks; this is on the Tar River itself, going through places like Rocky Mount and Tarboro. That tells us there hasn’t been much moisture to feed that river over the past couple of months.”

“It also tends to have an impact on agriculture, even this late in the growing season. We heard reports from ag extension offices in places like Wilson and Harnett counties in North Carolina this week. They told us that the rain they were hoping for to help their soybeans just hasn’t come along yet, and at this point, it looks like they’ll see reduced yields, especially for soybeans this year. So unfortunately, yield loss is a pretty typical symptom of those severe drought conditions. Some of those farmers in eastern North Carolina are really starting to see that — more browning, more wilting, more stunted growth in some of those crops.”

Now out in the tropics, we had another storm form — this is Tropical Storm Jerry. I’ve already seen it starting to curve northward. Is it going to have any potential impact on us, or even on the coastline, like heavy surf in that area?

“Well, we could see some areas with high surf, especially as Jerry strengthens to a hurricane over the weekend. But you’re right — Jerry is in the middle of a turn to the north. It looks like it will sharply curve off to the north even before it reaches the island of Bermuda. So, no impacts in terms of rainfall or high wind are expected for the Carolinas. You know, on one hand, we see a brewing hurricane out in the Atlantic, and we think, ‘Boy, I’m glad we’re going to avoid that.’ But this is also the time of year when we look to those tropical storms to bring us rainfall, especially when we’re in a drought like we are now. So, this is another missed opportunity, just like we saw a couple of weeks ago with Imelda — another one of those storms that was close to us but just not close enough to bring the rain we needed.”

So, I want to talk about the forecast for this weekend, but I did see what looks like a Nor’easter starting to form off the coast. How is that going to affect our weekend forecast?

“Yeah, that’ll be our big weather story to watch through the weekend. There’s a low-pressure system developing off the southeastern coast — mainly right off the coast of South Carolina — through the day on Saturday. Then, especially as we head through Saturday night into Sunday, that should spread some rain across far eastern parts of North and South Carolina. At this point, it looks like the heaviest rain will be confined to those immediate coastal areas. If you’re right along the coastline in Wilmington and Morehead City, or even down in Charleston, you may see some pretty decent rain. Some forecasts are calling for 2 to 4 inches in spots. As you head further inland, though, those rainfall totals drop off quite a bit. In the Raleigh area, we may see very little to no rain, and west of there, the chances are even lower.”

“So, for those areas in eastern North and South Carolina that are slipping deeper into drought, we’ll hope that some of the rain from that weekend system spreads far enough inland to give them a little relief. But right now, it looks like we can really only count on those higher amounts along the coastline.”

As far as temperatures go, are we going to be seeing 60s and 70s for highs going into this weekend?

“Yeah, it looks like, other than those rain chances along the coast, it’ll be a really nice, fall-like weekend again — keeping those upper 60s to low 70s for highs both today and tomorrow, possibly even into Sunday as well. Then, by Monday, we’ll start a slight warmup. Some of those clouds will clear, we’ll be back to sunny skies, and we’ll be at least up into the mid-70s in most eastern areas.”

“It looks like that warming trend may continue through the middle of next week with some upper 70s possible. Probably not pushing 80 degrees like we were earlier this week. But unfortunately, the other part of the forecast is more dry weather after that Nor’easter pushes off to the north later this weekend. No rain chances in the forecast through the rest of the week. That’s good news for the start of the State Fair in North Carolina next Thursday, but not so great news for farmers who could really use more rainfall.”