When analyzing the economic forecast for pork producers, it’s important to start with the fundamentals. Lee Schulz, chief economist at Ever.Ag, says publicly available USDA reports provide a valuable update on market conditions. The latest Hogs and Pigs Report serves as a key example of how to gauge herd size, production trends, and overall market direction.
“That gave us inventories as of September one, and then helped us kind of project those numbers six months to a year ahead, as we kind of look at those slaughter supplies and kind of anticipate what those numbers are. And to summarize that report, you know, I would put it in the category of a bit of a shocker, because not only did we see numbers below a year ago, which was a little bit of a surprise, but compared to pre-report expectations, as there’s about seven analysts that were asked about, you know, what they expected the numbers to be, and USDA came in much lower than those numbers.”
Schulz says if the latest Hogs and Pigs Report is taken at face value, it suggests tighter supplies than many had anticipated going into the release. That could have implications for prices and market movement heading into the end of the year, as producers and analysts reassess supply expectations and demand outlooks.
“What USDA told us is actually, till about mid-November, we could expect to see a few more supplies than compared to last year. But then, as we kind of turn the corner into mid-November, kind of through February, as they help us with those pipeline supplies, that’s where USDA says we’re going to get tighter supplies to compared to a year ago.”
In 2025, pork producers have seen a return to profitability, averaging around $20 per head, bringing margins close to the levels last seen in 2021. However, Schulz notes that despite the improved outlook, the industry hasn’t shown signs of expansion. Instead, producers appear to be “tapping the brakes,” focusing on stability and careful management rather than rapid growth.
“We’re seeing high interest rates. We’re seeing high building costs. We’re also seeing uncertainty on the forefront as it relates to trade and how that could impact our individual operations. And so, given all that, you know, we’ve not seen the expansion, maybe, that we historically would have in periods that we’ve seen some of this profitability. So then really, overall restraint from producers, and that has certainly contributed here to the stronger prices and profits. The fact that we really haven’t outpaced demand and seen an increase in supplies.”
From a demand perspective, the pork industry continues to maintain strong relationships with export partners. Schulz noted that domestically, meat is having a moment, creating new opportunities for pork within an evolving food landscape. The Checkoff-funded, research-backed Taste What Pork Can Do brand campaign allows the industry to make pork more relevant to more Americans.
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