Well, something we have not seen in a couple of months from here in the Carolinas: substantive rain — and measurable rain at that. We have state Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, what did we see from the rain, and what are the totals looking like as the rain has started to move away?

“Yeah, Kyle, I know some folks didn’t love that cool and brisk weather that we saw early this week, but there’s no doubt it was a welcome rain event across the Carolinas. This was the first significant, widespread rain that we had had in more than two months, since the middle of August. And then in some areas, like down in the Sandhills, some places saw an inch, inch and a half in a single day. Those were their wettest days since the middle of May. So that’s how long some places had been waiting for a good soaking rain event like this one.”

“In general, across the western part of the Carolinas especially, out in the mountains, we tended to see 2 to 4 inches of rain. Across the central part of the state, it was mostly a 1- to 2-inch rain event, and then those totals tapered off a little bit closer to the coastline. There were still some wet spots, including up in Elizabeth City — they had a couple of inches from this one. But also, down along the southern coastline, places like Wilmington only managed about half an inch from this event. But still, everywhere saw some rain over the past week, and we’re very grateful for that rain because we know it had really been drying out over these past couple of months.”

You’re talking about areas drying out. What impact has that had on the drought maps, both in North and South Carolina?

“Yeah, if you look at the Drought Monitor this week, we do see some changes, especially in some of those western areas that saw the heavier totals. We’ve seen those abnormally dry conditions peel back across the southern mountains of North Carolina, some of the Upstate areas in South Carolina, and then we also see some improvements in those Sandhills areas. We’ve gotten rid of some of the moderate drought in that region.”

“But keep in mind that rain was falling over several days this week. Our cutoff for the Drought Monitor is Tuesday morning, so any rain that was still falling on Tuesday, even into Wednesday, was not considered for this week’s map. That’ll be included next week, and that’s why we do still have some hope of more improvements. Again, looking at some of those areas in northeastern North Carolina that saw those heavier totals, especially on Tuesday night and Wednesday, we think that we could stand to see some improvement to some of the severe drought that’s been in those areas over the past month or so.”

“So again, I think the important takeaway here is it was a very welcome rain event. We are going to see improvements in some areas, but this was not a total drought buster. It was not enough rain to overcome those deficits. It was not enough rain to fully recharge some of the deeper soil moisture levels that have really dropped off — but again, nice relief while we can get it.”

Well, we’re talking about rain here, but one tropical system that has really been in the news over the last few days is Hurricane Melissa. It made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 with sustained winds of 185 mph. Tell us a little bit about that, and what kind of impact is that going to have on the ag industry as a whole, with the Carolinas probably trying to import some goods from Jamaica.

“Yeah, really incredible to see how quickly Melissa strengthened and how that really changed the story of that storm and its impacts. When we talked last week, it was just a tropical storm, and it was basically going nowhere. It was sitting just south of Jamaica. It was expected to bring lots of rain, especially to Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti. But then over the weekend, that storm really got its act together. It started to strengthen, becoming a hurricane, and then a major hurricane — and like you said, all the way up to a Category 5, one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. And then, of course, the eye of that storm tracked right across Jamaica earlier this week.”

“Now, thankfully, it looks like the more populated areas like Kingston, the capital, were spared the worst of the damage. But where that storm cut through was right across the agricultural belt in the center of the island there in Jamaica. I think they’ve had some bad storms historically, even going all the way back to Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 — that was a Category 4 when it skirted just south of the island — and that also caused a good bit of agricultural damage. In that case, it was a lot of the coffee and the banana crop. This time, we see that Jamaica has really diversified its agriculture. It’s growing things more like peppers and tomatoes and vegetable crops compared to what we saw historically. And it’s important to note that this is not just a crop that they export. It’s also a crop that they use to feed the folks on the island. They’re coming into their wintertime tourist season, so those crops that they were growing now were going to be used to feed the residents and tourists over the next few months. That’s something I know that farmers in the Carolinas can relate to — having a crop that grows for several months and being wiped out just by one bad storm at the wrong time of year.”

So, you know, Melissa is still an organized storm. I believe last time I saw it was a Category, I think, 2 or 3 storm. You can correct me on that, but what’s it going to look like over the next few days as it heads north toward, say, Bermuda?

“Yeah, this is a really long-lived system. We mentioned how slow it was moving last week, and it’s still not moving all that fast. It’s only just made it out of the Bahamas. Now it looks like it will have a close call with Bermuda over the next couple of days. Like you said, it is a Category 2 right now, not expected to make it back to Category 3 or major hurricane strength. Overall, the storm will keep moving off to the north and east. Any impacts that we see in the Carolinas will mainly be with rip currents, especially right along the coastline. We’re looking at some of those Outer Banks areas that have already seen some rip currents and over wash from other systems this summer. They may get another round of that. And, Kyle, I know we talked earlier — that means Highway 12, one of those main roadway arteries to the Outer Banks, could see some over wash and some road closures throughout the next couple of days.”

I think residents in that area are tired of seeing Highway 12 closed. I think this has to be at least the fourth or fifth time this hurricane season that Highway 12 has been closed for any length of time. I know last week we talked about first frost. We’re starting to see temperatures in the low 30s and 40s. Did we see any areas of first frost?

“Well, last weekend, especially Saturday morning, we did see that first really cool night of the year. Parts of western North Carolina, especially out in the mountains and in the foothills, did see temperatures below freezing — 29, 30 degrees in some spots — and then some areas right along the Virginia border were in the low to mid-30s. That was enough to create some patchy frost. But really, across the rest of North and South Carolina, those low temperatures never dropped below maybe the upper 30s or low 40s, so no frost yet for the season. And then, looking at the forecast, we really don’t see any signs of very cold nights. We’ll have some 40s, maybe a few upper 30s, but again, no sign of frost or freeze over the next week. So just important to note: climatologically, the first freeze, at least across the Piedmont of North Carolina, tends to happen in the first week of November. It looks like we’ll be a little bit later than that this year.”

All right. Well, let’s look at the forecast. I saw the possibility of some rain early next week. Is that the case?

“Well, it looks like it will be an overall dry week across the Carolinas. We saw a cold front come through yesterday and some high pressure build in behind that. That’s brought in a cooler and fairly dry air mass. We’ll see temperatures a few degrees below normal over the next couple of days, mostly in the mid-60s through the weekend. We may start a slight warmup early next week. By Monday, we could see some temperatures near 70 degrees. But like you said, that is our next best chance of rain. Right now, it looks like just some light showers are expected — probably no more than about a quarter-inch of rainfall from that event.”

“But also, there’s still some uncertainty with that system — exactly when and where it’ll move through — so that could mean some higher rainfall amounts, especially farther south. It looks like places along the South Carolina border and down in South Carolina may stand the best shot of seeing some more significant rain. But again, coming off that rain this week — 2 to 3 inches in some spots — I’d say most folks aren’t too eager for more rain, at least in the short term.”

And with Halloween tonight, how should all the trick-or-treaters dress?

“Well, it will be brisk, especially as that trick-or-treating wraps up later tonight. Once the sun goes down, it looks like we’ll have temperatures in the low 50s, maybe some upper 40s out there. And then late, late tonight and early tomorrow morning, that’s when we could see some of those upper 30s. So, Kyle, that reminds me — when I was a kid, you’d always pack a jacket for that trick-or-treating, because by the end of the night you knew you were going to get in some of that cooler weather. So, this will not be one of those dress-in-very-light-clothes types of years. You’re going to want to be at least ready to bundle up if that cooler weather sinks in.”