Soybeans continue to be the leader to the upside and traded back to levels we have not seen since July of last year. Curiously, there has still been no confirmation of the volume targets from the Chinese side. We have also not seen confirmation of what they are going to do with the ag tariffs going into China. We have seen evidence of purchases of U.S. soybeans by Chinese state buyers, which is helping support the market and keep the rally alive.
If they are going to get to 12 million metric tons by the end of the year, they are going to have to get on it quickly — and they seem to be doing just that. However, not to look a gift horse in the mouth, we think it is only Chinese state-owned buyers purchasing U.S. beans right now. Commercial interest still seems to be limited, as there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the Chinese tariffs.
In fact, since the rally in the U.S. market, it has made Brazilian beans more competitive again. A Reuters report on Monday said Chinese buyers booked at least 10 cargoes of Brazilian beans for December shipment and 10 more for March through July shipment. On the positive side, we are seeing Chinese interest in U.S. sorghum, which is a much-needed shot in the arm for that market too. Bloomberg reported that a major Chinese grain importer made inquiries over the weekend for U.S. wheat to load from December through February. The last time we sold wheat to China was October 2024. Wheat is also a market that could use any shot of bullish news.
The corn market has been left out of the news cycle recently. Basis is improving as harvest winds down across the country. Overall yields seem to be off quite a bit from the lofty growing season expectations. However, with the buffer of additional acres and robust estimates of feed demand, USDA has some cushion when reducing production.
Only a few days ago, I had thought the odds of a November USDA Supply and Demand report were very slim. Well, leave it to USDA to call me a fool — on Friday they announced they will release the November Supply and Demand report on Nov. 14, even if the government is not reopened by then.
There is no major weather threat in South America right now, but La Niña is growing in strength. La Niña generally reduces production in southern Brazil and Argentina. So the market is pricing in decent prospects — not a record and not a disaster. But as we know well, a crop is not made until it’s in the bin.
Look for soybeans to continue to be the upside leader as long as the trade truce with China holds. The rest of the commodities will be followers until we get some new headlines to trade.