So, it’s been a week since we had a nice little rain event for the first time in almost two to three months here in the Carolinas. But how has that affected the drought status? I’ve got state Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here.
Corey, like I said, we had that rain event last week. We talked about the drought monitoring cutoff being Tuesday, so we really didn’t know the impact of that rain event. So what did that do for the Carolinas and the drought?
“Well, you’re right, Kyle. When we talked last week, we had seen most of that rain move through, but last week’s drought assessment ended on Tuesday morning, which was when we were right in the middle of that rain event that was moving across the Carolinas. So, fast forward to now — we’ve had a chance to see how much rain fell and also the impacts that’s had. The good news was that this ended up being a pretty widespread, soaking rain event. Most areas in North Carolina saw at least 2 inches, and we saw some of the higher amounts — upwards of 5 inches — both in parts of northeastern North Carolina and also down in the southern mountains.”
“In South Carolina, there was a little more variation. We saw those higher totals farther northwest, and then that declined to some lower amounts — less than half an inch, especially along the southern coastline. But still, a pretty good, broad, soaking rain event, and that did have some impacts on this week’s drought map. We saw a lot of one-category improvements. So, a lot of the areas that had been in moderate drought are now back to just abnormally dry. A lot of the areas that had been in severe drought, especially in eastern North Carolina, are now back to just moderate drought. So no doubt, some improvements to be had.”
“But to be honest, the rain really didn’t go as far as we might have hoped — and this is pretty common when we come off a long dry spell like we’ve been in since the middle of August. When you get that first really good rain event after being that dry for that long, a lot of times that moisture is quickly sucked into the ground, and it doesn’t stick around. So what we’re seeing this week is that even though that was a pretty good rain we had just a week ago, things are already back to being pretty dry. We’ve seen a lot of those streamflow levels drop off right to where they were beforehand — which is below normal. The soil moisture is still in better shape at the surface, but some of those deeper soils are still running drier as well. So again, a good rain event. We’re glad we had it. But what this is telling us is we definitely need some more to fully get rid of all these drought impacts.”
Yeah, I was going to ask a little follow-up today. You were talking about how it was all that dryness and all of the drought we’ve had — it just basically absorbed all that water. Would we need another similar soaking rain event to be able to put a bigger dent in the Drought Monitor?
“Yeah, for sure. We look at a place like Rocky Mount in eastern North Carolina that’s been close to that epicenter of severe drought that’s developed over the last month or two. They had been almost 6 inches below their normal rainfall over that two-month period. That deficit is now down to about 3 1/2 or 4 inches, but they could definitely use another solid 2- to 3-inch event to chip away at those deficits more.”
“And then, when we look farther south — that southern coastline of North Carolina — they still had a pretty solid rain, 1 to 2 inches there. But we hear in some of the ag reports this week they also could use more, especially to get those small grains started and able to germinate. So, I know agriculture is quieting down at this point in the season, but certainly some of the growers out there getting their winter crops in the ground also want a little bit more rainfall.”
So, the tropics have been kind of quiet lately, after we had Melissa devastating Jamaica and parts of the Caribbean. What are the numbers looking like for the season? I know we’re getting ready to enter the last month of the hurricane season. What are the numbers for the season, and is it going to be more of a normal hurricane season, or are we looking at abnormal or above-normal storms?
“Yeah, there’s a few different ways to slice this. If you just look at the number of named storms, Melissa was the 13th named storm of the season. The historical 30-year average in the Atlantic is around 14 named storms. So, based on that, we’re close — maybe not quite to those average levels. But another way to look at the activity is by what we call the accumulated cyclonic energy. Basically, that’s how long storms were active in the basin and how strong they got. And really, Melissa pushed this season above average single-handedly. That was a storm that was active for several weeks. Of course, it reached Category 5 intensity and stayed there for several days before it moved over Jamaica.”
“So, because of some of those long-lived and strong storms we saw in the second half of the hurricane season, we’re actually sitting above normal for that cyclonic energy measurement. If you think back to the forecast earlier this spring, they were generally calling for near- to above-normal activity, and we basically made it there again. The number of named storms is not quite at that normal level, but just in terms of the length, duration, and strength of these storms, we see that those have pushed this to an above-normal season. Looking at the Atlantic right now, we do still see some pretty warm sea surface temperatures. In fact, here in the first week of November, the water is about as warm as it usually is at the peak of the season in September. So, no doubt, we are still warm enough to see some storms forming.”
“The problem that we have right now is there is so much wind shear across the region. As we get later in the fall, we usually start to see the jet streams get a little bit stronger. That boosts some of those upper-level winds and really makes it tougher for storms to form in that environment. So right now, we don’t see any systems that are likely to form over the next week, and of course, that time is ticking down — only about three weeks left in the season. So if it ends like this, we’ll at least say that this season went out with a bang, because Melissa was absolutely a monster.”
So, let’s look at the forecast coming up for this weekend. I’ve seen some craziness with the temperatures, and rumor has it there may be the first freeze of the season.
“Yeah, the State Fair wrapped up a few weeks ago, but it feels like we’re on one of these rides with our temperatures, because we are going to go from down to up and then back down again over the next few days. Earlier this week, we’ve been mostly a few degrees below normal — lots of highs in the 60s and those morning lows dipping down into the 40s. This afternoon, we’re going to be back on the upswing. We’ve got a warm front moving across the Carolinas that’s going to push our highs back up into the mid-70s. We may even be a little warmer than that on Saturday and Sunday, possibly some upper 70s. It wouldn’t surprise me to see an 80-degree reading in parts of eastern North or South Carolina.”
“And then by Sunday, we’re going to see our next cold front come through — and it is absolutely going to be a cold front, with emphasis on the cold. It’s going to bring our coolest weather of the season. Our highs are going to go from almost 80 on Sunday down to around 50 on Monday. And then it looks like Monday night into Tuesday morning, we do stand a shot at a pretty widespread freeze event across the Carolinas. Right now, we’re looking at low temperatures in the 20s across the Piedmont and probably lows down in the low 30s across most of eastern North Carolina.”
“That would be the first freeze of the season for those areas. Just in terms of how that stacks up compared to normal, for the Raleigh area and some of those Piedmont sites, it’ll be a week or two later than normal — their average first freeze date is right around Halloween. But for some of those parts of eastern North Carolina, like Jacksonville, the current forecast low on Tuesday morning is 30. That would pretty much be right on target for their average first freeze date. So even though it was a little bit longer wait for this first real blast of cold air, we are definitely going to feel it by the middle of next week.”