As the end of 2025 approaches, it’s time to start looking ahead to the new year. Naomi Bloh (Bloom), the senior market advisor with Total Farm Marketing, spoke during a presentation at the 2025 National Association of Farm Broadcasters Convention in Kansas City. She said 2025 has been an interesting year in the U.S. corn market.
“Right now, in the United States, we had record corn acres planted this past year, and for the most part, we had pretty decent weather all the way up until August. And then, on the August USDA report, the USDA felt that corn yield was going to be this record amount of 188 bushels, and that was just astounding to the market and led to the perception that we would have corn everywhere, and we were looking at $4 corn futures. But then, something happened in Iowa and portions of Missouri with Southern Rust.”
Southern Rust had never shown up in Iowa, a major corn-producing state, and took corn farmers by surprise at harvest.
“My clients in Iowa have never really dealt with Southern Rust before, and so it was a new thing. They sprayed once. Not twice. Not three times, and so, at harvest, they were a little surprised by the dramatic yield reduction. I only had one client in Iowa who had, for him, better than last year’s yields. Everyone else in Iowa that I work with was literally 20 bushels below last year. This is Iowa, so this has the potential to become a big deal.”
Blohm still expects further lowering of the U.S. corn yield early in 2026.
“I think, in the future, you’re going to see the corn yield number come down, and that shows up on the January WASDE. Now that’s critical for the corn market. That’s the cornerstone piece that we need for 2026. Now here’s the deal. Corn demand is the bright spot in this whole marketplace. Corn demand for ethanol, solid, you know, closer to 5.5 billion bushels, so a third of what we grow goes right to ethanol. We’re having record corn exports this year of three billion bushels. Fantastic.”