It’s been an interesting time in the soybean market. Jim McCormick, the chief operating officer of AgMarket.net, was pleased to hear that the U.S. and China had struck a trade framework that included Chinese soybean purchases from the U.S. However, he had some questions about the agreement.
“I gotta admit, there were some strange aspects to it. You came here a couple of weeks ago, and the bean market rallied on the anticipation that Scott Bessent was going to cut a deal with the Chinese. Coming out of the weekend. Scott Bessent said, ‘We have a deal,’ and the bean market rallied. A few days later, President Trump came out and said, “We have a deal,’ and the bean market rallied. And then here recently, the Chinese actually fulfilled part of the deal, a very small portion of it. They did start buying beans, and the bean market rallied again. So, I’ve been doing this for 30 years. I can tell you, I’ve never seen a market where you bought the rumor three times, and then you turned around and bought the fact.”
McCormick shared his thoughts on the soybean market during a presentation at the 2025 NAFB National Convention in Kansas City. He said the U.S. and China don’t technically have a signed agreement yet.
“So now, where we’re going to see, folks, is what actually does pertain, because what’s interesting is we still don’t have a deal with the Chinese. We essentially have a framework, and as we know, these frameworks can fall apart. Now, we did see some big bean purchases from China earlier this week. It was announced there were a few more boatloads that were sold last night, which is very good to see, but you’re still, I think, calculating they’ve maybe bought about ten percent of the 12 million metric tons that Scott Bessent or President Trump has said they’ve committed to do. The thing that we have to be cautious about in this marketplace right now is the Chinese, as far as I know, have not made any commitment to what they’ve actually agreed to.”
McCormick is trying to remain optimistic despite his remaining questions about the agreement.
Now, I’m taking it as an optimistic viewpoint that the fact that they are buying beans right now, while these final negotiations are going on, that they are going to follow through on their commitment. But I am a little bit skeptical also, because you have to remember, at the beginning of the year, we were thinking China was going to buy around 25 million metric tons of beans. That’s roughly what they’ve been buying on average the last couple of years. This deal is only 12 million metric tons for this marketing year, which is what it sounds like. So, the sales are only going to be half of what we thought they were going to be. And if you look at it economically, because there are still tariffs going on in China, there’s no economic reason for China to be buying our beans. This is a political buy, plain and simple. The people that are buying it are the Chinese government as a reserve buy to essentially fulfill their end of the trade agreement. So, we’ll see. I’m a little bit skeptical about where it’s at. It’s just that they have been known to not fulfill their promises.”