Well, as we wrap up Thanksgiving week, we turn our attention to Christmas, and that brings us the beginning of the winter season. We got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, it looks like we have some cold weather coming through to the Carolinas here in the coming week.
“Yeah, it’s certainly going to feel like the winter season here. At the end of November, we saw what the weather service called a polar front move through back on Wednesday. That brought a few rain showers, but mainly ushered in this really cold air mass from the North. Yesterday, we saw those high temperatures in the 50s. Today, we’ll top out somewhere in the 40s, and then, especially those overnight lows, will be just plain cold this weekend. It looks like tomorrow morning, most areas will be down in the low to mid-20s. Same story on Sunday morning.
“So, Kyle, if you’re someone like me who likes to put up the Christmas decorations on the day after Thanksgiving, this is going to be a perfect day for it. That cold air is going to make it feel like Christmas, and it’s going to be a great time just to bundle up indoors.”
Now, when we’re talking about cold temperatures, are we looking at highs in the 40s this weekend coming up?
“That’s right. It looks like today and tomorrow both will struggle to make it out of the 40s. Across North Carolina, some areas down in South Carolina could be closer to the 50-degree mark, but certainly, the coldest afternoon we’ve had so far this season. These high temperatures will even be below normal for the middle of winter. So, again, it definitely shows how cold this air mass is that’s going to be pushing in over the next few days.”
Now, you briefly touched upon it earlier, but what is causing this cold front coming through?
“Yeah, we saw a very strong cold front that moved through again back on Wednesday. It’s taken a couple of days for that cold air to fully work its way down here, but on Wednesday night, we saw those winds shift more out of the north or northwest, and then, that let that high pressure really build in. So, again, we’re looking at today and tomorrow being the coldest days of the week. And for folks that don’t love the cold weather, it will be fairly short-lived. It looks like by Sunday, we’ll be back into the 60s. But, again, definitely an early preview of that winter chill here over the next couple of days.”
Speaking of a preview of that winter chill, let’s take a quick look at the winter outlook. What are we expecting around the Carolinas this winter season?
“Yeah, anytime we go into the winter, we usually look at the El Niño or La Niña pattern to give us the best clues about overall what our weather may look like. If you remember back to last year, we were in a weak La Niña, and it looks like we have another weak La Niña shaping up for this year. I know this is defined by cooler water out across the Pacific Ocean, but because that water sets up over a fairly large area and over several months, it actually starts to shift some of the global weather patterns. And during these La Niña winters, we usually see a northward shift in the jet stream that tends to put us on the warm side and also on the dry side, as some of those storm systems bypass us to the north. So, again, that’s just an overall expectation. We think this winter probably will be drier than normal, maybe warmer than normal, especially over the second half of the season. Historically, those Februarys in La Niña winters are almost always warmer than normal, so we’re expecting that early warm-up by the end of the season, but really, between now and then, those temperatures are a toss-up. If you think back to last year, we had some pretty cold air, especially in January, that built in. That’s when we saw a few decent snow events, and the patterns are very similar for this winter, so we think there also is a decent chance of seeing some more cold air, like we’re going to see over the next couple of days, really through the first half of winter. And even though we don’t often think about La Niña as being favorable for snow, we tend to see below-normal snowfall overall in those winters, I do think there’s a decent chance that most of the Carolinas will see at least a little bit of snow at some point through this winter.”
Well, you’re talking about possibly having a drier winter than normal, which should actually take me to talking about the drought map. How is the drought map looking as we’re starting to get those cooler temperatures and we’re seeing those winds shift more northerly?
“Yeah, this is another similarity to where we were at this point last year. We’re seeing moderate drought across a good chunk of the Carolinas, with some pockets of severe drought mixed in as well. So, it’s never a great sign when you’re going into what will probably be a drier-than-normal winter and you’ve already got drought in place on the map. The one bit of good news is that here in our cool season, really, a little bit of precipitation can go a long way because those temperatures are not as warm. We don’t have the same levels of evaporation, and we usually don’t have the same sort of water demands for things like irrigation during the winter season. So, as we get any precipitation this winter, that should make at least a decent dent in the impacts—maybe not so much in the rainfall deficits—but we do think we can see some recovery for the soil moisture conditions and for the stream flow levels. But one thing we’ll be watching all season is whether that drought stays in place, especially as we get into the spring again. That was the case last year. Once we got into March, and especially April, we started seeing some of those impacts pop back up, and in some areas, the soils were just a little bit too dry for some of that early spring planting. So, we’ll hopefully get some decent rain and maybe some snow this winter. But, again, it definitely is a concern that we’ve already got drought on the map going into what will likely be a dry season.”
So, follow up on that is talking about dry weather coming into the spring. When would it be a good indicator that farmers might have some trouble planting in the early spring? Around what time would we see the impact starting to show on the map?
“A lot of times, at least that seed preparation work begins in the month of March. That’s usually a good time of the year to watch because, by then, we will have seen pretty much the winter wrap-up. And especially in a year like this, we’re expecting it may be an early end to that cold. We may start warming up in February, and really, if we haven’t gotten a decent dose of precipitation by that early-to-mid-March period, then we’ve probably just got what we’ve got going into the spring. So, even though a lot of the planting may not begin until April, once we’re past that average first freeze date, I think there’s a decent chance that March will give us some good clues about where we stand going into the spring.”
All right, well, that’s the outlook for what we’re expecting in the winter. But what are we expecting this weekend and coming into early next week?
“Yeah, we mentioned that chill that’s going to be in place, especially today and tomorrow. Again, with those highs mostly in the 40s and those really cold nights dipping down into the 20s. But things will rebound by Sunday. It looks like we’ll be back up into the mid-60s by Sunday afternoon. That’ll actually be a little bit warmer than normal for this time of the year. The other thing that we’re going to start watching on Sunday, and especially into Monday and Tuesday, is our next decent chance of rainfall. It looks like there will be a low-pressure system that’s taking shape down across the Gulf Coast, and that system right now is expected to move right over the Carolinas. It has been a while since we’ve had a moisture-rich system like that that’s moved right over us. It seems like, over the last three months, these systems have all just bypassed us to the north or to the west, but this should be a really good shot of rainfall, especially going into the day on Tuesday. As that system moves through, some of the forecasts I’m seeing now are showing pretty widespread totals of more than an inch all across the Carolinas, and some areas may see upwards of two inches. So, when we think about the sort of rain that we need to dig out of this drought, this is exactly the type of event that we’re looking for: a multi-day soaking rain event with some pretty significant, steady totals. We’ll hope that by the time we talk next week, we’ve got some really good rain that’s fallen across the Carolinas.”