There’s no question that high fertilizer prices have been difficult to deal with for months, but what’s ahead? Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, talks about nitrogen.
“So far, everything looks like it’s a big run here this Fall for anhydrous. Everybody who has had a chance to go out there, for the most part, has done so. We think it’s going to be a big fall run. However, you’re starting to see a lot more of the estimates next year for the corn crop. It’s getting bigger. We’ve used 93 million for the last big deep dive for the fertilizer forecast S-and-D. Now, we’re starting to hear some numbers, 94-95 is getting tossed out there, so a tremendous amount of demand is expected on the nitrogen side. Globally speaking, we still have some problems that I don’t know will go away very soon. Yeah, there’s been some things that have helped, but overall, S and D are still tighter than they should be.”
Linville talked about potash.
“I still think we’re okay. Potash prices are good. They make sense versus grain values. Yeah, they can always be cheaper, but I think the potash manufacturers have done a great job of putting the price where it needs to be. I think demand will be solid there. In phosphate, we still have big problems, and that’s gonna be the one, I think everybody’s gonna list and say, ‘Yep, I don’t like phosphates at all.’ I don’t think that’s getting any better anytime soon. The tariff situation that Trump announced late on Friday, or at least the Trump administration announced, helps, but it’s not the silver bullet. We are still a world that has China, which is typically the world’s largest exporter — eight or 10 million tons – and I will be thrilled if they hit four-and-a-half million tons this year, and I don’t know of anybody else who can step up and fill that gap.”
Phosphate and potash were recently added to the Critical Minerals List, which Linville said is good news.
“I will take any attention we can to help smooth the road, remove red tape, and things like that. Potash, I don’t get as worked up as some people do. When I look at the potash market, not only domestically, but globally, I see that as the best-supplied market globally. You have a lot of production out there. You got a lot of tons that are available. You have got, actually, more tons that are coming online. And in fact, the PHP, a major mining company, was building a facility up in Canada. They’re delaying the project. Part of it is due to cost overrun, but part of it is that they said that the medium-term outlook for potash is solid.”