If you stepped outside over the last week or so, you noticed one thing: it is hot. Temperatures in the 80s and low temperatures in the 60s are at least 20 degrees above what we’re normally used to this time of year. We’ve got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, let’s talk about it. Spring has sprung. What is going on with these record-high temperatures and precipitation?
“Yeah, you’re right, Kyle. There’s no doubt that we are in the spring now, but some folks may think we’re in the summer, because that’s how warm our temperatures have been, especially through the middle of this week. You know, we previewed this last week. We talked about how the usual afternoon highs at this time of the year are around 60. Well, our nighttime lows have been in the 60s for several days over this past week. And as you mentioned, well into the 80s for the highs. Raleigh made it up to 89 degrees on Wednesday. That’s the earliest they had ever been that warm. Fayetteville made it to 90, and that was their earliest 90-degree day on record by almost three weeks. So that tells you how unusual it is to be that warm at this time of the year.
“Now we have seen some other signs of spring out there as well, and one of those is the first showers and thunderstorms of the season. We had a few of those last weekend, but also several yesterday that kept us a little bit cloudier. It kept our temperatures a little bit cooler. But certainly, that was another thing — if you stepped outside during the day on Thursday, you noticed that rain and you probably heard that thunder. So certainly, that is one of those elements we expect in the spring. And finally, with the warmth and with a little bit of rain, that has got those flowers blooming, that has got the trees budding. And really, since the end of February, we’ve seen that pollen on the increase — so more signs of spring all around us here in the Carolinas.”
Yeah, I walked out the other day and saw the nice little layer of pollen laying on my car. And yesterday that rain washed it away, so at least that’s one good thing about the rain — it can wash that pollen off the trees and also off your vehicles. Now that we’re in about the second week of March, it’s the right time to ask this question: Was the groundhog right? You know, Punxsutawney Phil sees the shadow or doesn’t see the shadow. Was he right when he peeked out at the beginning of February?
“Yeah, well, Kyle, there’s a couple groundhogs we can track who had the same prediction this year. Of course, one, like you said, was Punxsutawney Phil up in Pennsylvania. Closer to home, we also have a groundhog named Snort down in Garner, and he also predicted six more weeks of winter. Now folks who have lived in the Triangle for a while may remember Sir Walter Raleigh. He was one of those predictors as well, but he retired a few years ago. But again, we still have a couple groundhog predictions to track.
“And you know, I think if you had gone back to those first couple weeks of February, as cold as it was and we were coming off that snow event, you would have said, no doubt this is going to be a long winter. But by the middle of February, and especially over these last couple of weeks, we have seen those warm temperatures increase. And if we just look over the last month, from mid-February to mid-March, we are running 6 to 10 degrees above our normal temperatures all across the Carolinas. So, I think we have definitely trended more toward that early spring. But I think I’ll give the groundhog the benefit of the doubt. It was so cold when they made those predictions that I can see why they went for the long winter this year.”
And a little follow-up: We were talking about these high temperatures, like the earliest they’ve seen — 89, 90 degrees. Can this be a predictor into what we may see later in the spring and closer to summer, or is this more of a one-time thing and we’ll start to bounce out within the next week or so?
“Yeah, a lot of times this really can be a one-off event if we see temperatures this unusually warm at this time of the year. We’ve also had cases where we hit 90 degrees in April or early May, and then we actually went into a cooler pattern through the first part of summer. So, it’s not necessarily a predictor, but it does get that 90-degree count running early for those places like Fayetteville. And if it does wind up being a hot summer, then this could potentially be a record-setting year in terms of the number of 90-degree days.”
Well, let’s talk about the forecast for this weekend. You talked about earlier that we’re seeing these high temperatures, and now we’re going to start to see a little dip as this cold front comes through. Talk more about what we can expect this weekend and going into next week.
“Yeah, we’re coming up on March Madness for basketball, but I think there’s some March madness in our weather in store as well. Again, we saw that front move through yesterday with some showers and storms that has knocked our temperatures back pretty dramatically. And this morning most areas are in the 30s or even low 40s, so that is definitely a big change — almost a 20-degree change from where we’ve been earlier this week.
“We will be pretty seasonable this afternoon. Most areas will make it into the low 60s. That is pretty much average for our highs at this time of the year. And then we’ll slowly warm up through the weekend into the 70s on Saturday and Sunday. By late in the day on Monday, and especially overnight through the day on Monday, that’s when we’re watching our next rain chance. There’s another front that’ll be coming in from the west. Looks like it should bring a pretty decent amount of rainfall. Most areas saw half an inch to an inch yesterday. We can expect another half inch to an inch from that system early next week.
“But after that cold front moves through on Monday, we will see a huge drop in temperatures through the middle of next week. Looks like those overnight lows on Tuesday morning could drop down near or below freezing. So, I hope folks haven’t planted yet, because that’ll definitely be a freeze risk. And then even the afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday look like they’ll make it into the low 50s. So again, we’ve seen that warmth over the last week or so, but it is settling back to more of what we expect at this time of the year. It is still March, it is still astronomical winter, and it will certainly feel like it by the middle of next week.”
I think March madness is a great way to put it. Basically, this past week you’ve been able to go out and fire up the grill and cook some burgers and hot dogs. Next week you’re going to be breaking out the hot chocolate, the cocoa and the blankets.
“Yeah, you know, Mother Nature has a way of trying to fit in all four seasons in one month around here. So that’s what we’re heading toward this month.”