It’s safe to say when Phil Collins wrote “In the Air Tonight,” he wasn’t talking about pollen. But across the Carolinas, that’s exactly what’s covering cars, porches and homes — pollen is in the air. We’ve got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, talk to us about the plumes of pollen taking over the Carolinas.
“They really have, and this time of the year, your nose knows best when it comes to the pollen, and it has been everywhere over this past week. You know, we’ve had an interesting pollen season so far. We had some warmer days back in February, and then we started to see some of the grass pollen levels increasing a little bit, and that was fairly early for the season. But throughout the first part of March, we had enough of those cold frontal passages that we never really got sustained warmth. Every time we had a few warm days, that was followed by a cooler one. And we also saw some rain along with those cold frontal passages, so that helped wash some of that pollen out of the air.
“What we’ve seen over the past week to week and a half since our last rain event is steady warmth. We have had several days this week where high temperatures have been in the 80s. That is enough to kick-start that pollen production in a lot of the trees and grasses. And we’ve also had some windy weather as well, so that has stirred up that pollen in the air. And as a result, if you look at the grass pollen counts from earlier this week, they have already surged into the high range. And then the tree pollen earlier this week, as measured in Raleigh, was the highest two-day total since 2002. So if it seems like this has been a more severe pollen season than usual, then certainly what we’ve seen over the past week bears that out. But again, it hasn’t been that way all spring. So far, it has really come on all at once here in the middle of March.”
Well, you talked about the dryness and some wind events that are making the pollen swirl around, and that also raises concerns for smoke and fire in the area. Do we have any updates on wildfire events in the Carolinas?
“We previewed this last week. We knew that we were going into this dry pattern where it was probably going to be fairly warm and where we would see some breezy weather for a few days. We saw those forecast fire danger conditions reach the extreme level across the Piedmont in North Carolina earlier this week. It is very unusual to see fire danger get that high, especially over a multiday period.
“But during those very warm, windy days, we did see some fires start, really on either end of the state. Down at the coast, we had a couple of fires in Onslow County. I know folks in the Wilmington area were seeing and smelling that smoke in the air. And also on the other end of the state, in the mountains, we’ve had a couple of large fires that have burned more than 600 acres so far in Mitchell and Cherokee counties. So that’s on U.S. Forest Service property. They are working hard to get those fires contained. But that comes with the territory. It comes with the time of the year when you start getting warm and windy weather in the spring that can naturally lead to these fires forming. And when you’re in a drought like we are now, that makes those fires worse as well.”
Well, this is the last interview we’re doing in March, so it’s a good time to take a look back at how the month has played out, temperature-wise and precipitation-wise.
“Yeah, I talked about the ups and downs in our temperatures, and that might make you believe that it’s been a near-normal month, but in fact, we are well above normal in terms of temperatures so far in March. Most of the Carolinas are six to eight degrees warmer than normal through this point in the month, and it is on pace to be one of the top five warmest Marches on record in places like Raleigh, Charlotte and Columbia, South Carolina.
“So even though we have had some of those cold days, that cooler weather has been fairly short-lived. We’ve warmed up quickly after that, and we’ve had a number of near-record highs in the 80s so far this month, and that is driving the overall warmth that we’ve seen in March. With our precipitation, probably no surprise, it is on pace to be a drier-than-normal month across pretty much all the Carolinas. In fact, it’s looking like it may be one of the top 10 driest Marches on record for many areas, with just over an inch of rain so far in places like Raleigh, and that came from one cold frontal passage a couple of weekends ago.
“So we wish we could have wrung a little more moisture out of this month, but again, we have been stuck in that dry pattern for more than six months now, so it also wasn’t too surprising that March played out like this.”
Also, let’s look at the drought map. You mentioned about an inch of rain in Raleigh this month, so obviously that’s not doing much to help. What does the drought situation look like right now?
“Yeah, it looks basically the same as last week. We are still seeing fairly widespread severe drought conditions across both North and South Carolina. There was some small expansion of that severe drought this week, mainly in the central parts of those states — some areas where we’re seeing declining stream flows and where we didn’t get as much rain about a week ago.
“We did see some small improvements in eastern North Carolina. This is right on the eastern edge of that severe drought zone, where areas have improved back to moderate drought. These are places like Kinston and Greenville, up close to Elizabeth City, where they did pick up some heavier rain early last week. So as that moisture finally trickled through, we were able to see some improvements in soil moisture and groundwater levels. But it looks like those are only going to be temporary improvements with the dry and warm weather we’ve had this week and with the forecast ahead, which shows no significant chances of rain before the end of March.”
That’s a perfect lead-in to the forecast. I did see a little bit of rain coming toward the northern part of North Carolina. Talk a little more about that.
“That’s part of our pattern over the next couple of days. First, we will have near-record highs again this afternoon. It looks like mid- to upper-80s across most of the Carolinas. It could even touch 90 degrees in a few places like Fayetteville. So again, if you’ve seen those high temperatures go all over the place so far this month, you will have another big peak this afternoon.
“After that, we will have a cold front that sags, and that’s where those few rain showers may come from, especially overnight tonight. It does not look like a widespread rain event. Most areas will be lucky to get maybe a tenth or two of an inch of rain out of this. But the big change is the temperatures we’ll see this weekend. We will go from near 90 this afternoon to only the 50s tomorrow, so that’ll be about a 30-degree drop in temperatures.
“You may also wake up tomorrow morning and even see some frost or a freeze out there, because those Saturday morning lows get into the 30s. So it’s a good reminder that we are not yet past that average last spring freeze date, which typically happens in the first to second week of April across central North Carolina.
“The good news is that we will start warming up again as we head into the first part of next week. Temperatures should make it into the 60s on Sunday, into the 70s by Monday, and it looks like we’ll be back in the 80s by the middle of next week. So as we wrap up March and start April, it will continue to feel like spring, with at least one wintry morning still possible this weekend.”
Is the roller coaster ever going to end for temperatures?
“You know, with the pattern we’ve been in really since the middle of winter, it doesn’t seem like it. We had that cold snap in January that lasted for a couple of weeks, including during those snow events, then we warmed right back up in February. We’ve seen the ups and downs in March so far. And looking ahead to April, it looks like we will still have mostly warm conditions, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see some cooler days here and there as well.”