Well, we know the old saying, April showers bring May flowers. Well, right now, May flowers are not looking well because we have not seen any April showers so far. We’ve got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, where were the April showers? The people want to know.
“I think the best way to describe our weather pattern over the last week is like biting into a very dry sandwich with some thick cuts of meat in the middle, not a lot of moisture there, and then just a little bit of mustard or mayonnaise on the bread. That’s how our precipitation played out. We had a cold front that moved through last Sunday. It did bring some showers in the western part of the state. In fact, some areas in the southern mountains of North Carolina saw upwards of two inches of rain from that system. As that front crossed the central part of North and South Carolina, rainfall totals were very low, less than an inch in most areas, less than half an inch in places like the Triangle and down in Columbia, South Carolina. And then finally, by the time that front reached the coastline last Sunday afternoon, we started seeing more showers and thunderstorms pop up. So, there was a little better rainfall, a little over an inch, just north of Wilmington and in some coastal areas. So again, some better moisture, better rainfall totals right along the edges, but in the middle, just not a lot of precipitation. And the big change that we’ve noticed this week is the soil moisture has just fallen off a cliff. Some of the stations that our office maintains across North Carolina have seen huge shifts over the last two weeks, from being in decent shape for this time of year to being very dry in that upper four to five inches of the soil. This is the sort of decline we would usually expect to see in the middle of summer if we were in a heat wave. But because it has been so dry lately, and we’ve started seeing some warmer weather as well, that has really sapped that soil moisture in a hurry.”
And with all that little precipitation, obviously, it has probably not been a huge help at all to the drought map. What’s the status of the drought map, and how more widespread is the extreme and severe drought?
“Yeah, we have seen those increases in coverage for both severe and extreme drought this week in North Carolina. That mainly happened in the southern mountains, including the Asheville area that is now in extreme drought, also across the western Piedmont, getting into the upper Yadkin Valley. These are places that really missed out on that rain last week, so they’re also in extreme drought. Parts of the northern Coastal Plain as well, up toward Roanoke Rapids, have gotten into that extreme drought, and then in South Carolina, we’ve seen a push to the south and east along the Savannah River. More extreme drought coverage down there this week as well. So, in total, we’re now looking at more than two-thirds of South Carolina in severe or extreme drought, and more than 90% of North Carolina that’s in one of those two high categories.”
When was the last time across the Carolinas that we have seen this much of the area covered in either severe or extreme drought?
“Down in South Carolina, we have to go back to the spring of 2012. It was in this same time of year, April and May, when we were seeing that peak drought coverage. In that case, it was an event mainly further to the south, especially along the Savannah River. We had so little precipitation that spring that we started seeing record low levels on Lake Thurmond. And then in North Carolina, to find a time when we had more than 90% of the state in these severe and extreme drought categories, you have to go all the way back to 2008. Of course, that was coming off a very bad drought that developed back in 2007. We were finally starting to edge out of it later that winter in 2008 but still had some widespread coverage. I will say, though, there is one bit of encouragement we can take from both of those events, and that’s that both in South Carolina back in 2012 and in North Carolina in 2008, we were able to make it out of those severe drought conditions without help from any tropical events. It was mostly just those spring and summertime showers and storms that became more widespread as we got deeper into the season that slowly helped remove those drought conditions. And I think that’s really our best bet this year as well. I don’t think we can count on a lot of tropical activity this year, so it may just be getting better rainfall from those daily showers and storms over these next few months.”
Well, that’s exactly what I was going to ask. What is next looking toward a little bit in the future, maybe getting closer to summer? What’s next to try to get us out of this drought?
“Well, I think the negative scenario is how much worse it’s going to get. Right now, we are seeing those extreme drought conditions creeping in across the Carolinas. Of course, there is one category worse than that, and that’s exceptional drought. Now, I’m not sure if we’ll make it to that level this year. That is reserved for the rarest, driest events that typically drag on for more than a year. In those cases, we tend to see widespread water restrictions. We don’t have many of those yet across the Carolinas, thankfully, but I do think we could see these extreme drought conditions becoming more widespread over the next few months, especially with a pretty dry outlook through the end of April. Our strategy in North and South Carolina over the last few weeks has been making incremental changes on the drought map, not shifting huge areas from one category to another, but slowly moving areas from moderate to severe or from severe to extreme, based on the impacts that we’re seeing. And of course, some of those impacts are ag-related, and especially now that farmers are having trouble getting their plants going this spring, I expect those impacts will become more widespread as the growing season continues.”
One little follow-up: You said that there is exceptional drought, the rarest case. Has it happened at any time over the last, say, 20, 30 or 40 years here in the Carolinas?
“Yeah, across the Carolinas, the main exceptional drought event was back in the fall of 2007 going into the first part of 2008. That was the drought that started developing the previous spring. We went through a record hot, record dry summer back in 2007 and stayed dry during the fall without any tropical systems to bring better rain. So, by the time we got to Thanksgiving in 2007, we saw widespread exceptional drought. Most local water systems and towns had implemented some degree of water restrictions. I’m sure folks who were around back then will remember being asked to turn off faucets when brushing their teeth and not being able to water lawns. Again, we hope we’re not in for anything like that. We hope we’ll get some better rain before this spring is over, but that really was the worst of the worst when it comes to drought conditions.”
And the one thing about the temperature is it’s continued to be on that yo-yo. We’ve been seeing highs in the 80s, and over the last couple of days, lows in the 30s. Do we have any more cold nights ahead looking into next week?
“You know, I feel like a broken record this time of year, because we see these warm spring days, sometimes as early as February. And I always tell people to wait to plant their gardens and crops until at least the first or second week of April, because our average last spring freeze date happens that late. And sure enough, this week we’ve seen parts of the Carolinas drop into the 30s, with some outlying areas even in the 20s. So again, a good reminder that we are not out of the woods for a freeze just yet. But looking at the forecast, it does appear that the last freeze is behind us. We will definitely be on a warming trend over the next week. By this afternoon, we’ll be well into the 70s with sunny skies. Through the weekend, we should be in the low to mid-80s, and by the middle of next week, we could see highs near 90 degrees in parts of eastern North and South Carolina — earlier than normal for the first 90-degree day. And unfortunately, Kyle, the one thing we don’t see in this forecast is rain. There is likely not going to be a drop of rain across the Carolinas, at least through next Wednesday. High pressure is building in, acting like a heat dome and blocking moisture. So, I think the drought map will look even worse at this time next week because we will not have any rainfall relief anytime soon.”
Hopefully we are wrong, and hopefully some much-needed rain arrives soon.
“I’ve got all my fingers and toes crossed that you’re right. We’re hoping for any rain we can get.”