Well, if it seems like déjà vu, it is. It is another week with hot weather, dry weather, no precipitation, and it is going to continue to wreak havoc on not only the farmers but the drought map in general. We’ve got assistant climate Corey Davis here. Corey, another week, another hot, dry Carolinas. Is there any end in sight?
“Well, you said it, Kyle. It has been hot, it has been dry, and certainly that is not helping our drought situation across North and South Carolina. We see that reflected on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map. We have seen more expanded extreme drought in parts of North Carolina, including getting into the Raleigh and Durham areas now. And in South Carolina, we saw a big expansion of severe drought this week.
We’ve now got more than 93% of South Carolina that’s in severe to extreme drought and more than 95% of North Carolina in those higher categories. Regardless of what the numbers show, they point to one thing, and that’s that there are very few parts of the state that are not feeling the effects of this drought right now.
We can also see this based on the temperatures. You said it’s been summerlike over the last few days, well into the 90s in some areas, very much above normal for this time of year, almost 20 degrees above normal in parts of the state. We also see that in the rainfall totals, or really the lack thereof.
So far this month, only one-tenth of an inch of rain so far in April in Raleigh, only one-hundredth of an inch down in Charleston, South Carolina. Across the rest of the Carolinas, we’re seeing totals of mostly a half-inch or less so far in April. Even the lucky places right along the coastline, like New Bern and Hatteras, have barely had an inch so far this month, so that is still drier than normal.
And again, with the forecast looking fairly dry as well, this near-record dry April will continue for at least the next couple of weeks.”
Now, you’re talking about some of the changes to the drought map, talking about like 95% of North Carolina in either severe or extreme drought, 93% now in South Carolina. Are there any new impacts because of the changes to the drought map?
“Yeah, when we go through a hot and dry week like this, we do start to see impacts emerging. First, thinking about our friends in the farming sector, it is just really the worst time for them to get hit with this dry weather.
I drove through parts of Sampson County earlier this week, seeing some of the tractors out in the fields. They’re just kicking up clouds of dust, and that is the reality of soil moisture right now, which is that there isn’t any. So, I know the farmers really want to get those fields prepped and ready for planting, but right now, anything that is planted is really going to struggle to come up.
We’re also seeing that some of the lake levels are continuing to struggle, and again, that’s just a matter of not having the rain to recharge those lakes and also seeing higher evaporation rates with these warmer temperatures.
Out in parts of western North Carolina along the Catawba River Basin, they have now gone into their low inflow protocol. That basically means that they won’t be releasing as much water out of some of their lakes so that they can hold on to a little bit more moisture closer to home.
In the Raleigh area, the city of Raleigh has now announced that outdoor watering restrictions will begin next week. Namely, this is affecting spray irrigation, how often folks can use that every week, how much water they can use for that.
As I like to remind people, this is not a sign that we are running out of water. This is just a way to make sure that we are smartly using our water and that we’re able to stretch our supply, just in case this drought were to last through the summer.”
So, I’ve got to follow up. A lot of people out in country areas rely on well water. Is this going to impact them as well? Not necessarily the city of Raleigh instituting water restrictions on irrigation, but just the drought in general and just the lack of rain that’s come through the area.
“You know, we talked last week about the similarities to that 2007 and 2008 drought. That was the last time we had this level of widespread severe and extreme drought in North Carolina.
Also looking at some of the rainfall deficits in places like Raleigh, we are now past the deficits that we had during the peak of that 2007 drought. So we know it has been very dry, but also one of the impacts that we saw during that 2007 drought is that some of those groundwater wells started to run a little bit low.
Looking at some reports earlier this week from western North Carolina about folks in 2007 who really couldn’t pull any more water from their wells, in some cases they were having to go down to the creek and get water from there, or they were having to purchase water from their local town or water supply.
Now, the good news for folks across the Piedmont in North Carolina and South Carolina is that we tend to have a little bit deeper groundwater stores in those areas. So I’d say the chances of us running out of groundwater are very slim for folks in eastern North Carolina, where those groundwater stores are a little shallower. This is something they might deal with more regularly, knowing that a few dry weeks and months can definitely cut back on their availability.
But again, right now, no concerns about groundwater running out. But as we see these parallels continue to the 2007 drought, that is always a possibility.”
Well, let’s take a look at the forecast, and let’s just dispense with it. Is there any rain in the forecast over the next week or so, and is it going to be meaningful, or is it going to be just a flash in the pan?
“Yeah, I think the answer is very little rain wherever you can find it, and it will not rain everywhere. The big event that we’re looking at over the next seven days is a cold frontal passage that’ll move through on Sunday. That’ll have two big effects.
One of those is bringing at least a few scattered showers, especially later in the day on Sunday. These will not be widespread. Not everywhere will see a shower on Sunday, and the places that do see those showers will probably only pick up maybe a tenth of an inch at most, so certainly not a drought-buster-type event, at least more rain than we had over the last week. But that’s not saying a whole lot.
The other big impact that front will have is knocking back our temperatures. We will stay in the low 90s this afternoon and tomorrow. By Sunday, as that front is approaching, we’ll only be in the 80s, and then by Monday, it looks like upper 60s to low 70s, and that’ll last for a few days next week.
Now, it does look like we will start a warming trend again by the middle of next week. So this cooler, or at least more seasonable weather, won’t last too long, but it will definitely be nice to have a break after feeling this sign of summer over the last week.”
So what you’re trying to say is we’re not getting off the temperature roller coaster anytime soon?
“That’s right. You know, it’s the spring. We’re used to seeing some ups and downs, but we’re not used to seeing 90s down to 40s for lows over just a few days. So yeah, definitely a roller coaster.
And then looking out beyond this week, there are some indications that we may get better rain chances by the very end of April or the first part of May. Now, this is also not likely to end our drought in one fell swoop, but at least if we can start seeing some more regular rainfall, that will help replenish the soil moisture, it’ll help refill those reservoirs, and it may at least put the brakes on this expanding drought across the Carolinas.”
So possibly May showers bring June flowers.
“Yeah, I think those showers may be delayed a little bit this year, and I know it’s hard to believe that we might flip patterns and suddenly get into a wetter pattern with how dry it’s been. But there’s one thing about this timing that is very believable, and that’s that it would follow essentially the same script as last year.
We were fairly dry coming out of last winter through March and April. Once we got into May, we started seeing those better rain chances, and those lasted through at least the first half of the summer. So if we follow that same script that Mother Nature is writing, I think maybe the end of spring and early summer this year could be a little bit wetter for us.”