The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer saw farmer sentiment drop in April. Michael Langemeier, director of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture, said uncertainty is taking a toll on farmers’ optimism.
“Farmer sentiment fell in April, as concerns about rising input costs, tighter availability, and global uncertainty continued to weigh on the Agricultural Outlook. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell from 127 in March to 121 in April, reflecting declines in both current conditions and future expectations. The April decline in the barometer was driven primarily by a drop in producers’ views of current conditions, which fell 11 points.”
Optimism for the future also declined during April.
“Expectations for the future declined modestly, but remained significantly lower than a year ago, down 28 points from April 2025. This shift in sentiment is closely tied to farm-level financial performance expectations. Only 15 percent of producers reported improved financial conditions compared to the same time last year. Looking ahead, producers are increasingly cautious as 28 percent of farmers expect their financial performance to worsen over the next 12 months, compared to 25 percent who expect improvement.”
He said the April Barometer marked a notable shift toward pessimism and highlights the pressure of the current economic environment.
“That uncertainty is also showing up in investment behavior. The Farm Capital Investment Index declined nine points to 44, its lowest level since October 2024, which, of course, is before the 2024 presidential election. This index reflects producers’ willingness to make large investments, such as machinery or buildings. A drop of this magnitude suggests that farmers are choosing to delay or scale back capital purchases, likely in response to tighter margins, increased risk, and, certainly, tighter cash flow.”
High input costs remain a central concern to U.S. producers.
“In April, availability concerns increased slightly as well. Layered on top of this is growing global uncertainty, particularly related to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which began earlier this year. This conflict has implications for both fertilizer and energy markets, two key drivers of production cost, particularly for crop producers. Approximately two-thirds of producers expect the conflict to reduce their farm’s net income in 2026.”
Many farmers also anticipate higher break-even prices next year.