Well, as we talked about last week, we expected to see some rain in the forecast last weekend. For the majority of the Carolinas, we did get to see that, and it had a positive — if minuscule — effect on the drought map. We’ve got state Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Some big news came out of the Forest Service: The majority of counties had the burn ban lifted this past weekend, due in part to that rain. Tell us a little bit more about that.
“Yeah, Kyle, I can’t remember the last time we were anticipating a rain event as much as this one last weekend. Just as a reminder, we were looking at low pressure that formed right off the Carolina coastline, so we knew that would mean better rain chances for parts of eastern North and South Carolina. I think most areas got a little bit more than what they expected from this.
“We saw parts of southeastern North Carolina, like the Wilmington area, pick up a little over an inch. Down along the coast in South Carolina, they had upwards of 2 inches. And in Charleston, they had more than an inch last weekend. That was their biggest rain event since the beginning of January — more than four months ago. So, it just shows how hard those rains have been to come by down in South Carolina.
“Then, as we worked our way farther north and west, especially into western North Carolina, the totals were a little lighter. Most of the mountains and Piedmont had less than half an inch of rain, but again, still better rain than we had seen for most of April up to that point.
“And as you said, that did have an impact on the Forest Service burn ban. They were really waiting to get one good rain event to help tamp down some of that fire danger. So, we have seen most of the state now lifted from that burn ban, except for those western Piedmont counties that didn’t see as much rain last week and where we have seen that extreme and exceptional drought continuing to expand.
“So, looking at where the drought map stands now — again, this was last updated based on data through Tuesday morning, so it does not include the rain we’ve seen over the last couple of days — we at least avoided any more degradations in South Carolina this week. Again, those areas generally picked up about an inch last weekend. And in North Carolina, we only saw a couple of small degradations, mainly farther north and west in some of the drier spots after last weekend. So, it was nice, at least, not to have any more exceptional drought added to the map this week. And we are certainly hopeful that, with the rain we’ve seen now and with what’s coming through this weekend, we may actually be able to make some improvements on next week’s map.”
Yeah, it was crazy. I was telling people last week I didn’t think I was going to get my yard work done because we were expecting all of this rain. I live in Alamance County, and we saw barely five or six drops while everyone around us was getting a quarter-inch or half-inch. We were getting two or three drops. So that’s how crazy that weather pattern was — some areas, like you said, were getting a half-inch, and some areas barely got a drop.
But we did start to see some more rain affect a lot of the Carolinas earlier this week going into Thursday. Tell us a little bit more about that and the possibility that it could impact the drought map going into next week.
“Yeah, this has been another system that really overdelivered compared to what was forecast, and certainly we’re not going to complain about that. We are happy to get more rain than we expected.
“Parts of western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina have seen 2 to 3 inches over the last couple of days. Even the Charlotte area has picked up about 2 inches. And then, as that rain continued spreading east across parts of coastal North Carolina, those areas saw upwards of about an inch. So again, another good round of rainfall.
“We did still miss out a little bit in some of our northwestern counties, especially getting into the northern mountains. So, it’s worth noting that this was not as widespread of an event as it could have been. But again, some nice totals — more than we’ve had in several months.
“So, with that rain already in mind, we are starting to see some small improvements. We are seeing those streamflow levels begin to recover. They are still below normal for this time of the year, but they’re really out of the doldrums — those record lows that we’ve been in over the last month or two. We’re also starting to see soil moisture conditions improve, and this is one area where farmers can get really excited, because they will be some of the first people to start noticing these changes as that topsoil moisture begins to recover.
“We saw some very small recoveries last week and should see some more this week after a couple rounds of rainfall. Again, that’ll be great news just in time for some of these crops that are going in the ground now. And then we’re also starting to see lake levels slowly creeping back up. Of course, they’ve been falling over the last couple of months. That’s why we’re seeing these water restrictions go into effect. But a couple of good rounds of rainfall is exactly what they needed, either to stabilize or even begin recovering.”
Now, we did see quite a few municipalities start to implement water restrictions, whether starting this week or next week. How will this rain affect them continuing those restrictions or second-guessing and possibly lifting them earlier than expected?
“Yeah, I don’t expect we’ll see many areas come out of water restrictions within the next week or two, and that’s because in places like Charlotte and parts of the western Piedmont, those are tied to the broader Catawba River Basin and their low inflow protocol. That’s based on several months’ worth of rainfall data, streamflow data and lake-level data, so even one or two decent rain events will not really change those three dry months’ worth of information.
“With that said, the next time that low inflow protocol is updated — probably in early June — it’s possible they could move back to maybe Stage 1 instead of Stage 2, where they’re at now. Then you might see some areas start to soften those water restrictions, maybe going back to voluntary measures.
“So really, it’ll be critical what we get this weekend and over the rest of May, because if we can get more regular rain events with maybe an inch or so in each event, that’ll go a long way toward at least stabilizing, if not recovering, some areas from this drought we’ve been in.”
Well, let’s take a look at the forecast. Do we have any more rain we can expect this weekend or early next week?
“You know, we talked last week about how we were going into May, but it would really feel like taking a step back into March. We’ve seen that a couple of times over the last week. We didn’t even make it out of the 50s last Saturday when we had that rain falling. We’ve had some more cool, slightly unseasonably cool days this week where we were in the upper 60s.
“We will be warming up through the weekend. This afternoon, we’ll be right around 70 and sunny — perfect weather for this time of year. Tomorrow should be in the upper 70s. And then, as we move into Sunday, that’s when we’ll start to watch our next chance of rain.
“There’s a cold front set up right along the Southeast coast that will start to lift back to the north, and then there’s another front coming in from the Ohio Valley. So, as those fronts converge across the Carolinas, that should bring a chance of fairly widespread rainfall, especially Sunday night into Monday.
“It’s tough to tell exactly how much might fall or which areas may see the most, but I think some areas could again see upwards of an inch, maybe even more than that. And I like the chances for South Carolina to see enough for a solid rain event this weekend.
“So, we do have that one good rain chance in the forecast. By the time we’ve had a chance to filter that rain through on Tuesday, I do think there’s also a decent shot at seeing some improvements on next week’s drought map — maybe peeling back some of these extreme drought areas to severe drought, or some of the severe drought back to moderate drought.
“So again, it’s worth noting this rain that we’ve had this week and this weekend will not end the drought, but it might go a long way toward starting to bring those improvements and reversing that drying trend we’ve been on since the start of spring.”