Fertilizer prices are trending high, even as farmers look to next year. Arlan Suderman, the chief economist for StoneX, said news headlines make the market even more volatile.
“It’s been a headline-driven market. Certainly, each day, the first thing we do is read the latest headlines. I never thought that I would operate by keeping the President of the United States’ social media account open, but that’s what I do, checking it frequently throughout the day, because when President Trump posts something on social media, oftentimes it’s a market-moving affair. When I see a big jump in the market, be it up or down, one of the first things I check is the President’s Truth Social account.”
Suderman said the fertilizer market is focused on the war in Iran.
“Most of the focus right now is on the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely curtailed our world’s energy supplies and our world’s fertilizer supplies. As high as prices for diesel and fertilizer are here in the United States, they’re much higher in the rest of the world, because that’s where the shortages are most pronounced.”
He talked about other areas feeling the impact of significant supply shortages.
“Asia, for example, is most dependent on energy and fertilizer coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. Europe would be a close second, and the United States fares the best. We’re least dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, but it is a world market. So, when they’re out of crude oil in Asia, and their cash prices are $160-$170 a barrel, they’re looking at where they can buy it, and in the United States, if it’s only $90 or $100 a barrel, it pays them to try to buy from us.”