Well, the one thing we have noticed is that we have gotten a little bit of rain around the Carolinas over the last week or two. And when that happens, what’s the first thing we think about? No, it’s not playing in the rain. It’s finding out what effects it had on the drought map. We’ve got state Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Give us an update on the rain totals we saw around the Carolinas, and are there any possible changes to the drought map?
“Well, you know, Kyle, when we see the rain falling like it did last week, I want to go outside and play in it because that is a relief when we finally start to get a little bit of help from Mother Nature.
“I think most folks across the Carolinas will be pretty happy with what we got last Wednesday and Thursday. For one, this was a two-day, fairly soaking rain event, and that’s different from what we saw back at the beginning of the month, when these were just a few hours of heavy rain in some spots. So again, that is one nice thing we’ve seen over the last week.
“And then looking at the totals, some of the driest parts of North and South Carolina saw the most rain in this event. Looking at the Charlotte area and parts of the southern Piedmont, they saw more than 2 inches. Just for some perspective, down in Monroe they had 2 inches last week. That’s more than they had over the previous two months. So again, that shows how dry they had been and how wet it was last Wednesday and Thursday.
“Parts of Upstate South Carolina also picked up 2 to 3 inches. So on this week’s drought map, we have seen some improvements in those areas. That includes a shift from the extreme drought level back to severe drought. And then in the southern Piedmont around Union County, we have gotten rid of that area of exceptional drought, so that is another relief and another benefit that the rain has had.
“We do want to pump the brakes, though. This was not a drought-ender by any means. This did cut into some of the rainfall deficits in these areas, but we are still looking at a lot of entrenched impacts. The groundwater levels, for instance, barely budged after this rain. We saw some improvements in the soil moisture, but really those deeper levels, where it would get into the groundwater stores, just haven’t seen the impact yet.
“So again, nice for the farmers especially to have a little more soil moisture now, but still a long way to go to really get rid of this drought.”
You talked about soil moisture, so let’s discuss what impact this rain event has had on farmers in the Carolinas and whether it has improved a lot of their soil moisture.
“You know, one thing we’ve been watching closely along with the rainfall over these last couple of weeks is the planting progress. And we note that for most crops going into the ground now — corn and soybeans — they’re pretty much keeping pace with the five-year average planting conditions. So in some ways, that’s a good sign, but we’ve also been a little worried because we know the soils have been so dry, and you certainly are concerned that anything planted now may not take root.
“It sounds like the rain we had last week has had a positive impact. At least some of those newly planted crops are finally starting to germinate. In some areas, they’re still growing a little more slowly or maybe a little behind pace in terms of emergence for this time of year. But overall, I think the farmers will be pretty pleased after that latest rain event.
“We know in some areas the pastures are still in pretty rough shape. We heard a report from Alamance County this week in central North Carolina that they are still seeing lots of stress in their pastures. There are still deep cracks in the ground, and again, one or two rain events will not fully solve those problems.
“The other thing we’ve heard, especially in eastern North Carolina, is that a lot of the blueberry farmers are really needing more rain. Those blueberries are at a point where they require lots of irrigation right now, and the farms with irrigation ponds are finding they’re 4 to 5 feet lower than usual just because of this prolonged dry spell we’ve been in.
“So again, good rain for the soil moisture last week. The farmers should be happy with that, but certainly we will need a little bit more to help recharge some of those ponds and to make sure those crops continue making progress as we head into the summer.”
Now, as we move toward the middle of May, let’s take a look at some of the rain deficits we have seen in the Carolinas. Where are some of the areas most heavily affected by these deficits, and did any of them ease up during that last rain event?
“Well, we hit a pretty ominous milestone over the last week. The first part of North Carolina hit 20 inches below normal since this drought began last summer, and that is up in Boone in the northwestern part of the state. That really reflects a trend we’re seeing after that latest rain event. Instead of being most concerned about the southern Piedmont and the Monroe area, it is now that northwestern corner that is starting to become the driest.
“If we get back into an exceptional drought situation in the next couple of weeks, that’s probably where we’ll see it emerge first because those areas have seen the least rain and the biggest buildup in deficits over the last couple of months.
“But yes, we have seen some improvements. The Charlotte area at least held steady over the last week or two. They didn’t fall even further behind, but they are still running more than 15 inches below normal since this drought began. So that’s about the best we can say for the rest of the Carolinas. At least it didn’t get worse over the last week, and those deficits are still holding pretty far below normal.”
All right, well, let’s take a look at the forecast. And I know recently — at least a couple of weeks ago — we talked about the roller coaster of temperatures, and if I read the forecast for next week correctly, I believe that roller coaster is starting its next upward trend.
“Yeah, Kyle, we talked going into the month of May that it would feel like taking a step back into March because we were seeing some cooler temperatures. We’ve had some very seasonable weather this week — nice and spring-like, upper 60s and low 70s. We will see some more of that today. We’ll have nice, seasonable highs in the mid-70s, but we will be warming up again as we head through the weekend.
“It looks like mid-80s and sunny on Saturday, near 90 by Sunday, and then early next week we will stay in the 90s. The bad news is that there is not a drop of rain in the forecast until at least next Wednesday night or Thursday.
“So this will be a real test for those improvements we’ve seen in things like soil moisture, because this hot, dry weather coming up could easily sap any of that moisture we’ve just seen. So we will hope that it holds out a little bit longer until we can get some better rain later next week. But again, right now it’s looking like it will be hot and dry, especially through the middle of next week.”
The roller coaster ride continues. It feels like we were just in March, and now we’re literally jumping to July in basically a week.
“That’s right. Strap in. Summer is on the way, and it’s worth noting that even though we’ve already had some 90-degree days in a few areas so far this spring, this will probably be the first widespread 90-degree event we’ve had so far this season across most of the Carolinas. So again, another sign that summer is basically here.”