Agricultural economists at the University of Illinois have updated farmer crop budgets for 2026. Economist Nick Paulson said the update came about because of improved crop prices and said last week that it’s a noticeable difference.
The big mover relative to those January numbers we put out is the higher corn and soybean prices we are looking at now in terms of pricing prospects for that 2026 crop. We have got 25 to 35 cent-higher corn prices for 2026, and more like a dollar increase on that soybean price.”
While those numbers increased, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and higher input prices followed as well. He talked about that impact?
“We did make some adjustments based on that, and this is in no way meant to downplay the impact on costs that it’s going to have for fuel, fertilizer, and even extending to other inputs if the effects of the conflict are ongoing here over the next few months. In terms of its impact on 2026 numbers, on the fertilizer side of things, situations on individual farms can vary, but in terms of averages, we are not expecting that to have a big impact on fertilizer costs for that 2026 crop. That is more of a big concern going into 2027, if prices remain at the elevated levels we are currently seeing.”
He said diesel fuel is a bit of a different situation.
“We would expect a bigger impact even on 2026 fuel costs. That is not a huge component of the overall per-acre cost to produce corn or soybeans, but we are looking at 50 percent higher diesel fuel costs than we had three months ago. Especially as we get into harvest season, if we still see prices at that level, that is going to increase fuel costs, and that was definitely something we incorporated. For 2026, those price increases tend to outweigh those cost increases there. 2027 will be a different story unless conditions change.”
Again, Nick Paulson is an agricultural economist with the farmdoc team. You may read the updated crop budgets for 2026 online right now at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu.