So, over the last couple weeks, we have been the bearer of some bad news: no rain in the forecast, high temperatures, drought maps getting into exceptional territory. But I think we can take a break from the bad news and give you some good news. We saw rain across the Carolinas last weekend and early into this week, but what effects did that have for the farmers and just in the general vicinity of the Carolinas? We’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here.
All right, Corey, like I said, we had a lot of rain over the last weekend and into this week. Talk to us about it, and what impact has it had on the drought map?
“Kyle, I think if you had asked me for most of this spring at the top of my wish list, it would have been a multiday soaking rain event where most of the Carolinas saw at least two inches, and that’s exactly what we’ve had since last weekend. We had a cold front that moved in last Thursday. That’s when we started seeing some of those showers, especially across the western part of the state, and then that front stalled out over us this weekend, so we saw multiple rain showers and thunderstorms popping up every day. Eventually, those spread eastward as well.
“And when we look at the end result over the last seven days, we have seen those totals of more than two inches across most of North and South Carolina. Some of the wetter areas farther west, especially in the southern mountains and upstate South Carolina, have seen five to 10 inches over the last week. Some incredible rain amounts, especially knowing how dry it was for several months before that.
“Worth noting that not everywhere picked up on those higher amounts, especially across the northern Piedmont of North Carolina. Most areas had less than an inch. Some areas only had about half an inch. So, when we think about the impacts that we’ve seen this week, it’s an overall positive, but we haven’t necessarily seen the improvements on things like lake levels. Falls Lake near Raleigh has pretty much just held the same, really hasn’t risen much over the last week.
“But again, broadly speaking, this was a very beneficial rain event. We have seen one-category improvements on the U.S. Drought Monitor, especially across western North and South Carolina. Areas that had been in exceptional drought in northwestern North Carolina are now back to extreme drought. Other areas that had been in extreme are now back to severe drought.
“And as we start seeing these improvements by a category, this drought feels like it’s getting more manageable. Some areas now, instead of being 15 inches below normal, are only 10 inches below normal. We look at places like Asheville; they’ve seen that sort of improvement in their deficit dating back to last summer.
“So again, I think the take-home point is this was a nice start. This doesn’t totally bust the drought, but certainly this is about all we could ask for out of one week’s rain.”
All right, let’s talk about the ag reports that have come out and how this rain event has actually helped to either improve or not improve those reports.
“Yeah, I’d say it’s a pretty mixed bag, and again, these reports came in on Tuesday. We were still waiting for some of the rain to move through and also waiting for some of that moisture to trickle through the soil then, but already we were seeing some benefits out in western North Carolina. We talked last week about how a lot of the vegetable farmers were using irrigation in those areas, like out in Jackson County. This rain has still been a big benefit. They could turn their sprinklers off for a few days and just let Mother Nature water their crops.
“We are still seeing some pretty severe impacts to hay fields and pastures and even some of that winter wheat that’s still in the ground in western North Carolina. Again, no matter how much rain they were to get at this point in the season, those crops are all fairly stunted and dry just based on the dry weather we had this winter and in the spring.
“Across the Piedmont, we noted that the rainfall totals have been kind of uneven, especially farther north in North Carolina. As a result, we are still hearing about some stress, especially for corn and soybeans. Some of those crops really need some rain right now as they head into the summer months. And then in eastern North Carolina, even though they had some decent rain, it’s probably a little bit too early to tell the impact it’ll have in some areas. The corn is still wilting, they say. It just needs more consistent rainfall as we head into June.
“So, I think one bit of good news that all the farmers could say is that any planting delays, any folks that had held off on planting this spring, should finally have enough moisture in the soil to get those crops in the ground.”
Several cities have put in water restrictions and stuff like that. Have any of those been improved or lifted because of this rain event we had over the past weekend, or are those all still in place?
“Yeah, we haven’t heard about any changes just yet, but again, this is pretty early. We are only a few days after that latest round of rainfall.
“I think as we continue to see more improvements on the drought map next week, because that will reflect the rain that we’ve seen since Tuesday morning, and more areas pushed back into the severe drought or maybe even moderate drought category, that’s when you could start seeing some local areas say, ‘Okay, we’ve had enough rain. We don’t need to have these restrictions in place.’ They may roll some of those back just to water conservation.
“Again, I think that’s another good take-home message. Just because we’ve had one wet week, that does not mean that we are out of all these impacts. We know there are still some low lake levels, even if they’re recovering, and it will take more rain events like this one to really get us out of the worst of these impacts.”
Well, let’s take a look at the forecast. Do we have more rain this weekend, or do we get a break for a few days?
“We are finally getting into a drier pattern, and I think that’ll actually be a relief for a lot of folks who saw their Memorial Day weekend washed out by the rain that we had last week. We are looking at cooling temperatures as well. We had a cold front that moved through last night that has knocked our temperatures back to the low 80s today, maybe only into the mid-70s by Sunday.
“You may see a few pop-up showers here and there this weekend, but otherwise we’re looking at mostly dry weather. It looks like better chances of rain may return early next week, say by Monday, and then really after that we don’t see any big rain chances until the second week of June. So, I think we can be okay with that. We can take a fairly dry week, let that moisture soak in, see what impact it has on next week’s drought map and then hope for some better rain as we get into the official climatological summer.”
And have we seen any impacts going on in the tropics as we’re getting ready to start hurricane season on Monday?
“That is a great point. We are right on the doorstep of hurricane season. June 1 is coming up on Monday. Right now, it is all quiet out across the Atlantic, but I don’t necessarily expect that to last long. We talked last week about the warm water that’s in place across the Atlantic right now, including right along our coastline and down in the Gulf. Those are some of the favored regions early in the season for storms to form.
“One of the big holdups right now is the wind shear. We are seeing strong upper-level winds across those regions that will probably keep any storms from forming right away, but if that recedes a little bit, then we could start to see better chances of storms forming, say by mid- to late June.
“So, I think it could follow the same pattern as last year. We had a couple tropical storms in June and, of course, Tropical Storm Chantal in early July that had big impacts in the Carolinas. So, no guarantee of a repeat of that exact setup, but again, I think there is a decent chance for some early activity over the next month or two.”