A “Super El Niño” has been a topic of conversation in weather forecasts for some time. Chad Merrill, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said El Niño arrived earlier this month.
“El Niño got started at the very beginning of June, so we are already seeing the Equatorial Pacific responding to El Niño conditions as we speak. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific favor on the cusp of a weak to moderate El Niño right now, here at the end of June, and the prospect for a very strong El Niño – which is also called a Super El Niño, which is the highest level you can see, with sea surface temperature anomalies of two degrees Celsius or warmer along the equatorial Pacific – is now at a 70 percent likelihood later this fall and early into the winter.”
The forecast is looking to turn drier in July, even in areas that have seen steady rain.
“Yeah, we have drought, especially across northern Minnesota and the Dakotas, and in the short term, we have this large area of high pressure that’s going to build across the east and then expand into the Plains, and then migrate into the Mountain West, and should become anchored somewhere between the Mountain West and the Western Plains for a good chunk of July, and while the southern part of the Corn Belt has seen an appreciable amount of rain so far – the corn is in very good to excellent condition, which is good to hear – we are going to see things dry out a bit in July. You really want to see the momentum carry through July with rainfall in the Corn Belt, but we are expecting that precipitation will be anywhere from 60 to 75 percent of average across the Corn Belt. Initially, the rain will be a little bit more frequent in early July, but then drop off a bit towards the middle and the later part of July.”
Along with dryness, it’s going to get hotter in many parts of rural America.
“We’re also seeing the potential for some pretty hot days. You know, farmers don’t want to see three consecutive days with temperatures in the mid 90s, because that can dry things out considerably. I mean, there will be opportunities for one or two periods where we get two to three days’ worth of temperatures in the mid-90s across the Corn Belt in July, so things are going to dry out a little bit in July. It’s a little bit more concerning across northern Minnesota, where a drought has already developed. South of there, it’s been fairly wet. So, we’re going to see, for example, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin were in a moderate drought briefly, then they got out of a drought. I think they’ll probably go into a moderate drought here going into July with these warmer temperatures.”
The long-term forecast shows a return to more moisture in August.
“I don’t think the yields are going to drop off significantly, but they’ll drop up a little bit in July, and then heading through August we see near average rainfall across the Corn Belt, and likely for temperatures to be near to slightly above average, so that’s what we’re seeing through the end of August at this point.”