For the last week or so, we have seen 100-degree temperatures, heat indexes almost to 110. But over the last couple of days, we have started to see some rain around the Carolinas. And how is that going to improve the temperature and the drought map? We’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, let’s talk about that heat from last week and how many records it set around the Carolinas.
“Yeah, Kyle, we mentioned last week that this would be a Fourth of July to remember, certainly for some good reasons with America’s 250th birthday, but also for some bad reasons because that heat peaked last Saturday on the Fourth of July. It was just a widespread heat event across the Carolinas.
“And in North Carolina, we did top those triple-digit temperatures as far west as Morganton, as far east as Greenville, and pretty much everywhere in between was lit up. We saw Raleigh hit 103 on Saturday. One of our office weather stations in Durham also made it to the 103-degree mark. And then, just across the South Carolina border in Chesterfield, they hit 104. So this is the sort of heat that we had not seen in at least a couple years.
“In places like Smithfield, in Johnston County, they had four days in a row with 100-degree temperatures. That’s their longest 100-degree streak since 1993. So again, this is the type of heat that we hadn’t seen on a holiday weekend, on the Fourth of July, in a long time. And certainly it made any of those outdoor activities feel awfully stressful.”
But over the last couple days, we have started to see some showers. I know at least the last couple days I have been caught in some sudden pop-up showers here in the Raleigh area. So let’s talk about that rainfall over the last couple days. Does it look like it’s going to help the drought map heading into next week?
“That’s the good news from this week. Once that heat dome pattern finally started to shift off to the east, it did bring in some more moist air and open up the floodgates, so to speak, with some of these rain showers.
“Now, just like we would expect at this time of the year, this rain has been very hit or miss. Some places, including down in southeastern North Carolina, have seen essentially no rain over the last week. But other areas, and you mentioned the Triangle, that’s probably the big bull’s-eye where we have seen some heavy rain multiple days this week.
“We talked in recent weeks and months about how Raleigh had been the epicenter of dryness in North Carolina going back to the start of the year. At one point, they had less than half of their normal rainfall back in early June. But now, while they’ve had almost 5 inches of rain so far in July through just one week of the month, that’s almost to their normal monthly average. So for all the rain that the Raleigh area missed out on back in the spring and early summer, they have tried to make up for it in a hurry with their showers this week.”
So, a little follow-up on that. I know a lot of the lakes in the area, Jordan Lake and Falls Lake, have really been seeing a lack of water. So how has this rain event over the last few days improved the numbers, especially at Jordan Lake and Falls Lake?
“Yeah, this week has really been a balancing act. We talked about the heat that we were dealing with. That obviously increases evaporation rates, and that meant that some of those lake levels were dropping even more quickly back over the holiday weekend.
“But since we’ve started getting some of these better rain chances and heavier rainfall totals, including right over Falls Lake, we have started to see some improvement. Falls Lake has jumped by about a half-foot over the last few days. That basically reverses about two weeks’ worth of drying that it had seen since the end of June.
“So it still looks like a drop in the bucket when you see how much Falls Lake has fallen over the last, say, six months. But again, that is a nice improvement, and at least it buys us a couple more weeks before potentially getting into that next stage of water restrictions in the Raleigh area.
“Really, across the rest of the state, it’s a similar story. We’ve seen some more stress increasing because of that heat, including on surface water like ponds and lakes. But where they’ve gotten that rain over the last few days, it has helped offset some of that moisture loss.”
So let’s take a look at the drought map. Have we seen any improvements in severe and exceptional drought?
“We’ve seen some very small changes, and not surprisingly, it’s mostly parts of southern Durham County and northern and western Wake County where we’ve been able to peel back a little bit of that D4 exceptional drought.
“Now, keep in mind that still puts these areas in extreme drought, so that is still severe. That tells us we are still dealing with impacts, but it also tells us that the rain has made some difference.
“Across the rest of the Carolinas, we’ve seen a lot of areas stay the same. Again, it’s been a balance between the heat and the rain this week. But some of the areas that have missed out on that rainfall have seen degradations. That includes parts of the southern mountains, where some of the streamflow and groundwater levels have just fallen off a cliff over the last week during that heat.
“And then, down in parts of southeastern North Carolina, I mentioned they’ve had very little rain over the last week. We now have a new pocket of D4 exceptional drought down in western Brunswick County that is now becoming one of the driest spots in the state. And even going down into North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, they are off to a record-dry start to the year. So again, we need some of those hit-or-miss showers to hit some of these spots that have been missing out lately.”
Well, let’s take a look at how it’s impacting the farmers. We were talking a little bit before we started recording about the tobacco farmers, something that we don’t touch on a lot. How has this impacted those farmers?
“Yeah, I think the tobacco crop is fairly unique, at least in the Carolinas, because it is not usually started in the ground every spring. Instead, they’ll usually start those in a type of greenhouse. Once they get a little bit further along, those will be transplanted out into the fields.
“So in some ways, that’s a good thing. That means tobacco is not quite as sensitive to those weather conditions early in the growing season. But once those crops are in the ground, they are just as reliant on Mother Nature as anything else.
“And with the dry weather that we’ve had and the heat over the last week, that means that the tobacco, especially in eastern North Carolina, is really feeling the stress now. This week, we’re hearing reports about yellowing leaves, slowing growth, and because this dry spell has been going on for so long, a lot of the irrigation ponds that the farmers would normally use to irrigate the tobacco are just too low to use.
“Again, that means that we talked about the corn and soybeans and cotton in recent weeks, and now we can add tobacco to that list because those crops are also struggling in the middle of this drought.”
Well, let’s take a look at the forecast. Do we have any end in sight with this 90- to 95-degree heat, and do we have any more rain in the forecast for the weekend headed into next week?
“Yeah, thankfully there’s a bit of both of those in the forecast. We will have at least a couple more days of that heat, with mid- to upper 90s coming this afternoon and again on Saturday.
“But by late tomorrow, we should start to see the clouds build in. There’s a cold front that will be pushing in from the north. That will also increase our rain chances overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Then Sunday should feel a lot more like normal for this time of the year. We’re talking highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, and it looks like that will last through at least the first part of next week.
“Again, more seasonal temperatures, but also keeping that seasonable rainfall chance with those pop-up showers and thunderstorms just about every day.
“It’s a little bit too soon to say how the rest of the month will play out. But if we can keep that pattern up for a few more weeks and again get some better rain like Raleigh has had this week, then I think we’ll probably stop seeing some of these degradations on the drought map and at least be able to hold steady as we get into the climatologically hottest part of the summer.”