Another week on the weather roller coaster here in the Carolinas. We had some rain earlier in the week, and now the heat is on once again. How has that affected areas that received rain, and how has it affected the drought map and the farmers, especially the corn crops? We’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, let’s talk about the areas that have gotten the most rain over the last few days and how the heat is going to affect them going into the weekend.
“Yeah, I think the weather story of July so far has been that tug of war. We’ve had some days with some pretty heavy rains, but then we’ve also had some of these hot days like we’re in right now. And again, we have been right in the middle of that shift this week.
“Let’s go back to the end of last week and over the weekend. We do have some better rainfall to talk about there, and we have pockets of North and South Carolina that picked up 3 to 4 inches of rain. This was the wettest they’ve been in months and, in some cases, in years. We look at a place like Smithfield down in Johnston County. They had 4 inches of rain back on Sunday. That was their wettest single day since August 2020, so it was a relief to see that rain where we got it.
“But like we expect at this time of the year, not everyone got that same amount of rain. Unfortunately, some parts of the northern Piedmont in North Carolina that are in that exceptional drought, D4 zone, had less than a half-inch of rain this week. We also saw areas along the southern coastline down in Brunswick County that, again, missed out. We know we’re now dealing with a large wildfire that’s burning in that part of the state, and they did not have a lot of help from Mother Nature this week with fighting that.
“So, you look across the state. Some areas saw some decent rain, and we did see some improvements on the drought map in those areas. Mainly, it was seeing some areas in extreme drought that have now improved to severe drought, and then a few areas right along the coastline that had been in moderate drought are back to just abnormally dry.
“So, this does represent a nice, steady change. Not as much of one as we would like, and maybe not as much of one as we would expect. Again, you look at parts of the northern Piedmont. Places in Durham County had 2 to 3 inches of rain this week. They’re still in that exceptional drought, and that’s because, for one, they’re just in an entrenched drought right now. The lake levels are still very low. Stream levels and rivers are also still running low. It’ll take more than just one rain event to recharge those.
“But also, you look at the nature of the rain. A lot of that 2 to 3 inches fell over just a few hours. So, we really need more of a slow, soaking, steady rain event to make a difference. As is, a lot of that rain just ran off, and folks were saying that the day after it rained, the stream beds were back to being dry again. So, this was a nice start, but it tells us that we still need some more, and we still need more regular rainfall to really chip away at this drought.”
Well, you did bring up that wildfire that’s going on down in Brunswick County in the Shallotte area. Do we have any updates on how that’s going and how close that is to being put out?
“Yeah, earlier this week, the North Carolina Forest Service reported that it was actively burning about 300 acres. It has burned 500 acres so far, but they’ve been able to get some of it under control. It’s about 50% contained right now.
“Keep in mind that’s not the only fire that the Forest Service is dealing with. There’s another one up in Onslow County, another one in Hyde County that’s been going on for about a month now. So, they are very busy right now, and this is something we’ve seen in historical droughts like back in 2008 and 2011. We’ll get these fires that start down at the coast in the late spring and early summer months. And in some cases, they can burn and smolder for weeks or months at a time. So, I have a feeling that with this drought going on, the Forest Service and the firefighters will be busy tending to these fires for a little bit longer now.”
We’re about halfway through July. Let’s take a look back at the month so far. Talking about, like I said, we’ve been on this roller coaster of rain and heat, rain and heat. How has it started to measure up as we get to the halfway point of July?
“Well, I think both of those show up in the monthly rankings. First off, starting with the precipitation. Again, we have had some decent rains in parts of the state. Raleigh has already totaled more than 5 inches, so that’s already pretty close to its monthly normal rainfall, and there’s still weeks left in the month. They are running above normal so far in terms of precipitation.
“There are other areas that are pretty much right on their normal so far, especially along the coastline. Places like Charleston and Wilmington, they’re at about 3½ inches of rain for the month so far, pretty close to where they should be for this time of July.
“And then there are some dry spots as well, places that just seem to keep missing out. That includes areas like Fayetteville and Goldsboro. They’re running an inch or two below their normal precipitation through this point in the month. So, I will hope once we get through this weekend, we start getting some better rain showers and those areas will start to pick up some better precipitation totals.
“And then looking at the temperatures, not surprising to anybody, it has been on a very warm pace so far this month. Places like Raleigh and Greensboro are on track for one of their top five warmest Julys on record. And then, I know we’ve had a lot of very hot days, we’ve also had some very warm nights. So, this is tracking pretty much right on pace with last year for one of the warmest Julys on record based on those nighttime low temperatures. And unfortunately, we will have some more of those warm nights to deal with as we get into the weekend.”
Let’s take a look at the crop reports. We were talking before we started recording about the corn crops and how some of them are not in good shape. Give us an update on those corn crops from around the Carolinas.
“Yeah, we expected this coming out of June. June is usually that critical time of the growing season for the corn to get some good rainfall. It needs that moisture so that the silks can develop, and the silks help pollinate the crop, making sure that those kernels can develop fully and begin filling.
“And that’s what we’re hearing this week. There is poor kernel development across the corn crop in the eastern part of North and South Carolina. We are seeing that the ears are not filling like they should. And a lot of the farmers are saying that they know they will have yield losses for the corn crop this year. Those are just irreversible at this point. They didn’t get the rain they needed at that critical time of the growing season. So, especially where they don’t have access to irrigation, this could be a really rough year for that locally grown corn.”
Let’s take a look at the forecast. We have seen, once again, kind of a roller coaster: rain, then heat; rain, then heat. What are we going to be looking at this weekend going into early next week?
“Yeah, this feels like a repeat of a couple weekends ago when we were seeing that heat dome develop across the region. We saw those high temperatures pushing 100 degrees closing in on the Fourth of July. We may not be quite that hot this time around, but it will still be at least in the mid- to upper 90s. A few areas could touch the 100-degree mark this afternoon.
“By tomorrow, we will still be in the upper 90s, but the better chances of rain will begin later tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. It looks like we will see a relative cool-down by Sunday and Monday, probably low 90s on both of those days as a cold front moves in. We’ll also see some of those better rain chances return.
“So, this is climatologically the hottest time of year. We expect to be at our warmest at this point in the season, and it will definitely feel that way, especially over the next couple of days. Again, the good news is there is at least a little bit of relief, maybe a little more seasonable temperatures by early next week. But we especially like those better rain chances showing up, and hopefully that means that some of these areas dealing with the heat now will get the relief by this time next week.”