Well, we have been seeing a lot of rain over the past few days here in the Carolinas. Has that made any type of impact on the drought map? We’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Before we talk about what’s been going on over the last couple of days, let’s look to earlier in the week. We had a rain event come through. How did that affect the drought map?
“Yeah, Kyle, this is a good reminder that most of this latest round of rain started on Wednesday afternoon. That was after the cutoff for consideration on this week’s drought monitor map. But we did have some locally heavy showers back on Sunday and Monday. At my house in the Triad, we had almost 2 inches on Monday morning, so that has certainly made a difference in spots.
“Not so much in South Carolina. We do have a few areas in the Upstate that have improved from severe back to moderate drought. But especially in North Carolina, that’s where we’ve seen the bigger changes thanks to that rain earlier in the week. That big pocket of exceptional drought across the northern Piedmont is almost gone. It has substantially shrunk this week, but it’s really taken multiple rounds of rain to get to that point.
“The soil had been so dry that anytime they would see some rain in the last couple weeks, that water would very quickly filter through, and it would go back to being dry again. So we’ve had to see those steady, consistent rain events to finally make a difference.
“And then also, we have seen some reduction in the extreme drought, D3 level, in parts of the Piedmont, also parts of the northern Coastal Plain up in the Tar River Basin. Again, those areas have seen some better totals over the last couple weeks. Even before this latest rain event started, we were still on track for a near-normal to slightly wetter-than-normal July. And boy, has that ever changed here over these last few days.”
So let’s take a look at the rain that has happened in the Carolinas over the past few days. It has basically been a rain event over the last 24 hours here in Raleigh. What has caused this, and what is the impact for the farmers and on the drought map?
“This is a really interesting pattern. You know, we’re used to seeing our rain events move in from the west if they come across the mountains, or sometimes from the south if they’re moving up the coastline. This is an event that started in the north and has been working its way to the south, and that’s because we’ve had a cold front that’s been sinking south out of the Ohio Valley.
“At the same time, there has been a plume of tropical moisture that’s been moving in from the Gulf and off the Atlantic that has provided the moisture to fuel this heavy rain. And boy, has it ever been heavy in spots. Back on Wednesday, we saw 4 to 5 inches in places like the Triad. We have seen those higher totals over 2 inches spread to Raleigh yesterday. And again, that heavier rain will continue moving to the south over these next couple days.
“Looking back at the ag reports from this week, it was clear that some farmers had benefited from the rain they had gotten earlier in the week, but a lot of areas had still missed out. We look at parts of the western Piedmont in North Carolina, places like Rowan County. It sounds like some of the soybean growers there had still not planted some of those beans for the year because it had been so dry. Now, this is leaving it pretty late, but with the moisture they’re getting this week, that should help those newly planted soybeans get a really nice start.
“And then also looking down at southeastern North Carolina. This is an area that really hasn’t started getting into that rain yet, but that should happen over the next 24 hours or so. They have mostly missed out on these showers in recent weeks, so this is very badly needed rain in those areas.
“For the farmers, when we’re talking about the corn, it may be irrecoverable for the season because it has been so dry to start the summer. They’re looking at crop losses in spots, but there may still be some of the peanuts and cotton, and possibly the soybeans, that could really benefit from this rainfall.”
So with this rain happening over the last couple of days, there have been a lot of flash flood warnings in the Carolinas, but we have not seen any reported, or that many reported, flash floods in the area. Could this be contributed to the fact that many of the lakes and rivers are currently at about 50% of their normal capacity?
“Yeah, that’s exactly right. If you’re going to get 4 to 6 inches of rain in 24 hours, it might as well happen when you’re in a drought because there is extra capacity to store that water in the soil, the streams and the lakes, and we are seeing those benefits.
“But you’re right, we are not seeing as much flash flooding happening after that rainfall. Yesterday, once that rain had stopped out in the Triad area and was winding down in the Raleigh area, most of the rivers were just back to near-normal levels, which is where we want them to be for this time of the year.
“We’ve seen Falls Lake rise by about a half-foot, but it’s still a little more than 4 feet below normal. So that tells us this rain is making a difference without having too many huge impacts, but it also tells us that this is not the complete drought buster that we would want. We would need multiple events like this over the next few months just to continue chipping away and continue raising those lake and river levels slightly more.
“So again, we’re happy to get the rain that we’ve gotten and also happy to avoid a lot of the flooding that we might normally see from amounts like this.”
Now, watching some weather reports recently, I’ve been seeing meteorologists talking about moisture coming up from the Gulf from Tropical Storm Bertha. Tell us a little bit about Bertha, and why hasn’t this name been retired? Because this storm several years ago really did some damage to the Carolinas.
“Yeah, you know, there’s a convincing case that Bertha has played a role in our rain this week. If you looked especially Wednesday night and then yesterday morning, there was a plume of moisture coming up out of the Gulf, and it was really coming right from those outer bands of Bertha that was feeding along this front that stalled out across the Carolinas. That may at least be a minor player in bringing us some of these higher rainfall totals.
“Bertha is only the second named storm of the season. That means it has been a fairly quiet start to the season, and that’s sort of what we’re expecting for this year: below-normal activity. There are signs that the El Niño pattern is already having an effect on the Atlantic, especially down across the Caribbean and reducing some of the activity there.
“With that said, I don’t think we’re done with storms for the year. You look at where Bertha formed, right along the Gulf Coast. That is one of those typical areas where we’ll see storms form earlier in the season, so I think we could at least fit a few more storms into some of those same areas.
“And you’re right, this is the 30-year anniversary of Tropical Storm Bertha, which became Hurricane Bertha when it hit the Carolina coastline back in 1996. Bertha did a pretty good deal of damage back then. I remember watching in my grandma’s living room. They had the news crews down at Kure Beach. Bertha knocked down half the pier on the beach there, so that was a pretty significant hit.
“The problem was Bertha was followed about a month later by a stronger storm, Hurricane Fran. Fran did even more damage to those coastal areas. So when it came time to retire storms in 1996, the World Meteorological Organization said Fran was the bigger storm. It got retired. Bertha did not.
“My personal theory is that if Bertha had been the only big hurricane that hit us back in 1996, it may have gotten more respect and may have gotten that retirement instead.”
Yeah, I remember that storm because my grandparents actually had a boat in Belhaven, and they were visiting us up here during the storm. They came back, the boat was on shore, upside down, and my grandpa literally said, “Well, it looks like we’re done with that.”
“Yeah, Bertha was not as strong of a storm as Fran, but it was one of those classic coastal hurricanes. Anything that was not secured was going to get blown around or blown away, and that includes the boats.”
Let’s take a look at the forecast. Is the chance of rain going to continue for the Carolinas into the weekend and early next week?
“It will. We talked about this event. It is moving in from the north, so some of those areas down in southeastern North Carolina and coastal South Carolina that have not gotten in on the rain yet will start to see that during the day today, even overnight tonight into Saturday.
“The rain is by now pretty much wrapped up in the Raleigh area. We could see a few more showers through the weekend there, but again, the heavier stuff is moving to the south by now.
“With all things considered, we expect most areas in eastern North Carolina and coastal South Carolina to see at least 1 to 2 inches out of this event, and there is the potential for some higher local totals in there, just like we’ve seen up across parts of the Piedmont.
“So again, a very solid rain event, widespread coverage, the kind of event just like we needed with the drought that we’re in. By the time we get into Sunday, most of that rain should move out. We will be a little cooler than normal for this time of the year, mostly mid-80s.
“Then through the first part of next week, expect a slight warm-up back to around 90 degrees, but those afternoon showers and storms should return. So it’ll feel a little more like normal for late July as we head into next week.”