After seeing hardly any rain around the Carolinas over the last six months, July was one of the wettest on record, and that has led to some positive updates on the drought maps and the lakes and rivers around the Carolinas. We’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, let’s talk about some of these milestones. Like I said, I saw a report that Falls Lake is now back to about 90% of where it should be. So let’s talk a little bit about those milestones around the drought map and around the farms here in the Carolinas.
“Yeah, Kyle, you said it. We’ve been dealing with these dry conditions and with this drought for so long that it’s easy to feel like this will never end. But we’re starting to see those signs that things are improving, that there is light at the end of the tunnel, and we’ll eventually get out of this drought.
“We picked out a few of those to talk about this week. We’ll start with the Raleigh area because, you said it, they have seen nice recovery in their local reservoir, Falls Lake. It is back above 80% of its normal water supply storage, and that led the City of Raleigh to roll back its water restrictions. Raleigh is no longer under any water restrictions. With that said, it is still smart for folks to at least be aware of how they’re using water. I don’t think we’ll see those restrictions come back anytime soon, but it’s always just a useful household task to think about how you’re using water within your home.
“Another milestone we’ve seen is out in the western part of the state. At the end of July, Asheville picked up enough rain that it is now above normal for the year so far. Again, you think about how dry we were this winter and the spring and the first part of summer. It felt like we were just destined to have a drier-than-normal year, but there are parts of the state that look like they may finish the year a little wetter than normal.
“We can talk about the overall drought picture as well, with some of the improvements that we’ve seen this week on the drought map, peeling back some of the severe and extreme drought in different parts of the state. We’ve now got less than 30% of North Carolina in those higher drought categories — the severe, extreme and exceptional levels. The last time we had that little coverage of those categories was the first week of the year, back in January. Again, that tells you how long we’ve been dealing with this more severe dryness, but also how big of a difference that recent rain has made. This past week was no different. It was fairly spotty, but some areas picked up some pretty decent amounts — 2 to 3 inches — and they have seen more improvements on the map this week.”
We also saw some reports out of Forsyth County and the Mount Airy area where they had massive storms come through there. That was a case of they needed the rain, but they didn’t need that much that fast. Do we have any other areas around the Carolinas where they got too much too soon and it caused some damage?
“Yeah, looking at the map, it is a very typical summertime pattern. There are some areas that had barely any rain last week and, like you said, some areas that have seen too much. We did see totals of more than 8 inches in parts of Surry and Stokes counties, just north of the Pilot Mountain area. Other parts of far western North Carolina, out toward Murphy, had about 3 inches over the last week. Then we saw some of those higher totals scattered across parts of central and eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina. Wilmington picked up about 3 inches this past week as well.
“We haven’t seen flooding reports out of a lot of those areas. Again, I think that really tells us there was capacity to store that extra moisture in the soils and the streams. But no doubt, when you get 8 inches of rain that falls over the course of just a few hours, like we saw up in Surry County, that will indeed lead to some big impacts.”
Let’s take a look at the ag reports. How have the farmers recovered based on all this rain that we’ve seen over the last month?
“Yeah, I think no doubt the farmers are happy with the rain that we’ve gotten. We mentioned last week that in some of the tobacco fields there’s even been too much moisture and some standing water over the last few weeks. I think with the dry days that we did have, especially late last week, that has probably given all the farmers a chance to get out in the fields and assess their crops.
“We are hearing that the topsoil moisture is doing a lot better now. Of course, that makes sense after the rounds of rain that we’ve had over the last month. The subsoil is still a little drier. Of course, plants that have deeper root systems, like the corn, are trying to pull from that subsoil moisture, and again, there’s just not a lot there. We need more rain to recharge those deeper soils.
“In terms of crop conditions, I think those later-planted crops, especially the soybeans and cotton, continue to do better. They are really benefiting and springing up after this recent rainfall. The earlier-planted crops, like the corn, are still struggling. Like we talked about in recent weeks, we really may not be able to salvage the corn for the year based on how dry it was back in the spring and early summer. Pastures also continue to be fairly stunted, and again, that’s more related to the dryness that we had earlier this year. But we are at least seeing enough rain now to get some of those pastures and hayfields growing again. So, mixed reports from the farmers, but again, it’s better than what we saw a month or two ago when we were really in the middle of that extreme drought.”
As we enter August, it’s the third month of hurricane season, and we’ve only had two named storms so far in the Atlantic. Let’s take a look at the season outlook. Have there been any changes to it, and have those changes been made because of a stronger-than-expected El Niño?
“We have seen a couple of updates to the outlook and, yes, they are citing that stronger El Niño as a factor in reducing the amount of expected activity.
“First, the National Hurricane Center has updated its outlook. They’re calling for seven to 13 named storms in total. The average is 14, so they are fairly certain it will be a below-normal season.
“The other outlook — and I think this one is even more eye-catching — is from the Colorado State forecast team. They are a veteran group that’s been doing this for decades now. They are now calling for only nine named storms in the Atlantic this year. It is very rare to see a year with a single-digit number of tropical storms. It’s only happened once in the past 15 years. That was also an El Niño year back in 2014.
“So we are seeing that very strong El Niño continuing to build, and it looks like it is finally starting to have impacts on the tropics. We know usually in these El Niño patterns that we’ll see stronger upper-level winds reaching into the Atlantic basin. That adds more wind shear and makes it harder for storms to form. That has been a pretty common pattern over the first two months of the season, and we’re still seeing that in the first week of August.
“When you look at where those storms have formed in the Atlantic this year, they have both been right along the Gulf Coast. I think that’s going to continue to be an area to watch as we go through the peak of the season in mid-September. But the rest of the basin could be pretty well shut down by that point. If we’re seeing this widespread wind shear, we may just not see a lot of activity. So it would not surprise me if that single-digit total number of storms comes to fruition, and it could even be lower than the nine storms the Colorado State team is calling for.
“Really, we are in uncharted waters with the strength of this El Niño and how strong it may get by the end of the year. So we think that could really supercharge its impacts, including on the Atlantic.”
Let’s take a look at the forecast. Will we be seeing above-90-degree temperatures in the Carolinas, and will that cause a chance of rain to pop up?
“You know, we got spoiled there that last week of July. We had some of those cooler 70-degree days. I don’t think anybody expected that would last through the rest of summer, and sure enough, we are starting to see those more summer-like temperatures.
“It looks like we could crack 90 degrees this afternoon. Then, as we go through the weekend, we will see a warming trend. It looks like we’ll be in the low 90s by Sunday, probably the mid-90s through the middle of next week. We’ll also see those rain chances decreasing, especially through the weekend. We also have some chances for pop-up showers and storms this afternoon and tomorrow, but especially by Monday and Tuesday, it looks like those chances will be a little lower.
“So that means we need to wring whatever moisture we can out this weekend because it will be hotter and drier through early next week. But really, looking out into the middle and late stages of August, it’s shaping up to be, I think, a pretty typical summertime month. We’re talking about the Bermuda high-pressure system off our coast that usually brings some warmer and more humid air our way and also fuels those daily rain chances. That will continue to be a big driver in our weather through the next few weeks.
“So, no signs of any prolonged dry spells or heat waves in the forecast, but we do have those few hot days early next week to get through.”