New questions about this year’s corn crop are emerging as private crop tours report yields below earlier government estimates. At the same time, producers are watching demand, trade policy, and livestock markets for clues about where prices could head this fall. Collin Watters with the Illinois Corn Growers Association discusses crop conditions and the outlook for corn demand.
“We had quite a bit of rainfall in August, which was probably a little too late for most guys. Pollination had already passed. The pollination period was pretty hot and pretty dry. Those nighttime temps stayed high too, so I think we lost some yield during pollination. What I had hoped is that maybe some of that rainfall would help grain fill, but it almost feels like it might have been just too much rain at the time. So, definitely seeing some impacts from nitrogen not being available. Some of these storms that have come through have been really, really windy.”
Watters says yield potential varies dramatically depending on where farmers are located and when their crop was planted.
“I think this year, like every year I suppose, but this year especially is highly variable. And it really depended on when the crop was put in, if you actually had a window to be planting for several days at a time, which a lot of folks didn’t. So, it’s a mix.”
Beyond production concerns, demand remains one of the biggest factors supporting the corn market. Watters says ethanol exports play a key role.
“We’ve had very consistent, stable domestic demand. Ethanol is still growing slightly, and a lot of that has to do with foreign demand for U.S. ethanol. Our domestic ethanol consumption peaked back in 2019, so we’ve been coming off of that for a while now, so really the export market’s kind of absorbing a lot of that surplus you could say. I definitely would love to see more domestic demand, but it’s kind of at a balancing point right now, and a lot of that is policy driven. All the work on higher blends of ethanol like E15 or higher, that’s coming into sharp relief right now. The Senate farm bill has an E15 fix, but not sure when the Senate is going to be able to get that done, and we’re not all the way done there.”
Watters also points to challenges facing livestock producers, including the impact of meatpacking capacity and feed demand.
“One of the big topics that we talked about just about every day was the closure of the plant in Joslin and what that might mean for livestock producers in northwest Illinois and, well, the entire region. That’s just a huge packer, and when they close the doors there, that’s going to be problematic for a lot of people. So, that’s something that we’re watching very, very closely. I still don’t have a good idea of what that might mean for the cattlemen in the area, but then working back to the corn growers, it’s not really clear what that might mean. So, we’ve got some issues on the home front.”