Well, we have been dealing with a lot of heat here in the Carolinas over the past week. Some areas have seen a little rain. Some areas have been asking for rain. And in some areas, especially around the tropics, we’ve been getting some short-lived rain. So, we do have a couple of storms to talk about over in the tropics. And that’s what we’re going to start with here with State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis. Corey, we talked about her last week. Dolly was a named storm, and almost immediately after we were finished talking, the storm dissipated, but we have a new one to talk about.
“Yeah, I think we can say last week that Dolly never even made it to those islands in the stream in the Caribbean. As soon as it started getting close to those Caribbean islands, Dolly fizzled out. So, that’s one storm that we didn’t have to worry about any impacts closer to home. We have seen a new storm this week, though, in Edouard. Now, Edouard was a fairly short-lived storm as well. It was only a named tropical storm for about 24 hours, but it made landfall in East Texas. And as you said, those areas have picked up quite a bit of rain. Areas just to the north of Houston saw upwards of 20 inches of rain over a 24-hour period. That is a ton of moisture from what it was a fairly weak tropical system, but in some ways, that’s a throwback of what we’ve seen in the Carolinas over the last couple years. Think back to Tropical Storm Debbie in 2024. Another weak storm based on the winds, but it packed plenty of moisture and brought some pretty widespread rain. And then think back to last summer. We had Tropical Storm Chantal. It was only a tropical depression when it moved across central North Carolina, but that was another very wet event for places like Burlington and Chapel Hill. So, just a good reminder that even when we see these weak storms, that does not mean that they’re not capable of having some big impacts, especially in terms of rainfall.”
Do we have any other systems in the Caribbean that we might need to be looking at, more of next week? And is the El Nino coming through there really causing an issue with the formation of storms?
“Well, now that Edouard has finally dissipated, it’s looking calm across the Atlantic, at least over the next few days. The Hurricane Center has not picked out any new areas to monitor. And like you said, we are seeing that big impact of El Nino across the Caribbean that continues to increase the wind shear across that basin that makes it very tough for storms to form or move through that region. And when we look at the storms that we’ve had this season, we’re now up to five. There have been some common elements. Number one, they have been pretty short-lived. The longest-lasting storm we’ve seen was Bertha, and it was active for a whole three days down along the Gulf Coast. These have also been weak storms. We have not yet seen the first hurricane of the year. Instead, these have all been just tropical storms, but also these storms have stayed away from the Caribbean. Again, like we’ve talked about, the wind shear in that region just makes it very tough for storms to move through there. So, the storms we have seen have either been down on the Gulf Coast or coming off the coast of Africa. That looks like it’ll be the region to monitor later this month as we move through the typical peak of the season. But again, we are looking at really a dead zone in the tropical Atlantic. It’s hard to imagine storms forming in that Caribbean region right now, thanks to that roaring El Nino that’s already causing some impacts down there.”
So, let’s talk about some of the rain that we had this past week. What changes did it make to the drought map? Are some areas wanting more rain and not getting it, and are other areas getting more rain and really didn’t need it?
“Yeah, there’s a little bit of both. The main event that we’ve seen over this past week was a cold front that moved through last Thursday. Now, this produced some fairly slow-moving rain showers, especially across the Sandhills in North Carolina. Places like Laurinburg and also parts of southern Cumberland County, just south of Fayetteville, saw some showers last for hours and drop up to 7 inches of rain in spots, and that created a big surge on some of the rivers and streams down there with so much more moisture falling over such a short time. So, those areas have seen some local improvements on the drought map this week. They have moved from the moderate drought level back to the abnormally dry level, but they are really the exception. The rest of North and South Carolina has stayed pretty much the same on this week’s map. They saw half an inch to an inch of rain from that system last week, so not enough to bring improvements, but just enough to avoid those degradations. And then the one area that we continue to watch for and see those the Virginia border, some of our northern-tier counties like Halifax and Warren County, and then a little bit further west into northern Guilford and Rockingham counties. They have missed out on that rain over the last week, over the last month, over the last three months. So, we’re continuing to see extreme drought on the map in those areas, and severe and extreme drought have further expanded this week. So, again, it’s a case of, if you want to call them the rich getting richer, places that have seen better rain in recent weeks, like the southern coastal plain, continue to get more. And then those dry areas just continue to miss out.”
So, as we’re moving into the month of September, the one thing we seem to can’t get away from is the 90- to 100-degree heat. We had some 90s, heat indexes near 110. Talk to us a little bit about that.
“Yeah, the calendar says September. The thermometer says July because we have seen that extreme heat return, especially over those last two to three days. As you said, upper 90s across most of Eastern North and South Carolina. Some areas have gotten close to the 100-degree mark, and we’ve got another day in store of that today. Again, more hot weather on the way this afternoon. There is a little bit better news by tonight. We’ll be looking at a cold front moving in from the north. That will bring a little bit more moisture that will start to fuel some of those scattered showers and storms later on today. As we move into the day on Saturday, it will still be hot, not quite as hot, but still mid-90s in most areas. And then finally, that front will continue to push through by Saturday night. Again, some better rain chances expected. But also, that will fuel a more legitimate cooldown by Sunday. We’re talking about highs in the mid- to upper 80s. Still a little bit warmer than normal for this time of the year, but not far off from where we should be in September. And for folks who have outdoor activities on Labor Day on Monday, it looks like it will again be seasonable, mostly sunny, very little chance of rain, but not quite as hot as we’ve been this week.”
So, for everyone going out to college football starting this weekend, bring the sunscreen and maybe an umbrella, just depending on what area of the Carolinas you’re in.
“That’s right. It looks like for those Saturday afternoon games, that, of course, is when it’ll be the hottest. Again, still looking at mid-90s in most areas. If you’re looking at a nighttime game, maybe a late kickoff on Saturday night, you could see those better chances of showers and thunderstorms. They will be very scattered in nature, though. We’re talking about pretty low rainfall totals for the week, no more than half an inch or so in most spots. So, it will not be a washout by any stretch, but don’t be surprised to see a few raindrops out there on Saturday night.”