So, the temperatures are starting to drop almost like Coyote falling off the cliff in “Coyote vs. Acme,” but we are pleasantly surprised that we’re now seeing 70-degree temperatures. We do not know how long that is going to last, but that’s why we got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, like I said, the temperatures gone from 90s, dropping down almost overnight to the 70s. Give us a little bit of update on the temperatures around the Carolinas.
“Yeah, Kyle, we talk about the roller coaster ride sometimes, and I think that’s a good way to put it over this past week. You look at where we were last weekend and even back on Monday, we had those highs in the low to mid-90s. In the Raleigh area, it made it up to 94 degrees on Monday afternoon. And you’re right, that’s like when Wile E. Coyote is in midair waiting to fall down. We were just waiting for the drop at that point. And that’s exactly what we’ve seen over these last few days. Those highs were down in the 80s on Tuesday, down to the mid-60s on Wednesday and Thursday, and that meant we dropped more than 30 degrees in the course of 48 hours for those high temperatures.
And we’re really feeling that fall-like chill this morning. Those lows are down in the 50s for the first time this season. And by the way, that first 50-degree night usually happens in the last week of August, so that shows how delayed that fall-like weather has been this year. But again, it’s been a nice welcome pattern change. We can say goodbye to the heat, at least for now. No more 90s in the forecast, and instead, through the weekend, we have some very seasonable, comfortable fall-like weather to look forward to.”
Now, I know up in the north, they are going to be dealing with a nor’easter. Has that nor’easter actually been the cause of the temperatures to drop here to the 70s?
“It has, and that has been a really surprising system, and it shows how strong it’s been. As that low pressure started moving up the coastline, we saw the wraparound winds. They go counterclockwise around low pressure, and that was pushing that cold air further south across the Carolinas. This is a pattern we call cold air damming when you get those winds from the north that push that cold air down across the Piedmont of the Carolinas. It wedges up against the mountains, and it keeps us in these cool, cloudy periods that sometimes last for several days.
So, usually when we’re seeing a pattern like this, it’s because you’re getting strong high pressure that builds to our north. In this case, we’re seeing it because of strong low pressure that’s been moving to the north. And by the way, spare a thought for folks right along the coastline in North Carolina. They have really felt the effects of that storm system. Overwash along Highway 12 down on Hatteras Island. They have felt the strong winds. Haven’t seen as much rain from this system, but again, it has been a pretty thorough pounding that they’ve endured here of these last few days.”
So, we’re talking about the northeastern and some rain down in the coast. We have seen some rain over the last couple of days. Have we seen any improvements in the drought map because of that?
“Well, that has been another welcome part of this pattern change. It had been a dry start to September, but we did finally see some rain showers here over these last few days. Keep in mind, most of this rain fell after Tuesday morning, so it didn’t make it into this week’s drought map. It will be considered for next week’s drought monitor, but the highest totals in North Carolina had mainly been further west, especially across parts of the foothills.
The Hickory area has picked up about two and a half inches, so a really solid rain event for those places. Most areas in the Piedmont of North Carolina have seen around an inch from this event, and then as we work our way further south and east, most of South Carolina has missed out on this event. We’ve seen totals less than an inch down there, and most of the coastal plain in North Carolina has also seen those lower totals as well.
That is not good news because those have been the driest areas lately. Of course, that’s where the temperatures have been the hottest over the first few weeks of this month, and that’s where we also did see some degradation on this week’s drought map, looking at places like Lenoir County out in the Kinston area. We’re now seeing extreme drought reemerge in that part of the state.
Just next door to there, we got an ag report from Wayne County this week that talked about how bad the peanut and the soybean crops are doing. This dry and hot weather that we’ve had so far in September has been really damaging for those crops that are still in the field. So, we wish we could have gotten a little bit better rain in those eastern areas, but at least the cooler temperatures should help avoid some of those drought stresses.”
So, I know a lot of this rain didn’t occur before this week’s drought map. Is there a possibility that this rain may eliminate some of that extreme or see some improvements? Or is it too early to tell?
“Well, I think based on where those heaviest totals have happened, again, mainly in the western part of North Carolina, those are where we’ll be looking for some potential improvements next week. Now, those areas are not in extreme or exceptional drought right now. We’re mainly looking at moderate drought conditions in that part of this. So, we could see some alleviation of those more minor drought conditions further east. I’m not sure if we’ll see any more degradation next week, but we certainly haven’t had enough rain to lead to any improvements either. So, at best, I think those areas will just hold steady here as we get next week’s drought update.”
Well, as we continue to look at a very inactive hurricane season here in the Atlantic basin, we do have Fay out in the middle Atlantic. Do we have any updates for that? And is there any possibility that that will actually be still a storm and make any impact in the U.S. and especially to Carolinas?
“Well, you’re right. There is a lone soldier in the Atlantic right now, and that is Tropical Storm Fay, and you have to give credit where it’s due. Fay has not been a very strong system. It has been a very weak tropical storm over the last few days, but Fay has become the longest-lasting tropical system of this hurricane season.
So far, it first formed back on Sunday. It weakened that back down to a tropical depression after a day or two, but it has since reformed into a tropical storm. Fay is also taking an interesting track in an interesting part of the basin. It is pretty far off to the east. It is about halfway between Bermuda and the coast of Africa, and instead of moving from west to east like we normally see, Fay has been moving from east to west.
So, this has been one of those years where conditions have been so unfavorable in the traditional parts of the basin, like down in the Caribbean, that we are seeing these storms pop up at some different places just like Fay has. But the good news is that Fay does not pose any threat to land. It looks like Fay will probably continue to fizzle over these next few days and through the weekend. So, sometimes we talk about a fish storm. I think Fay will definitely fit that category.”
All right. Well, let’s take a look at the forecast. Are the 70 degrees staying put for the weekend going into next week, and is there any more chances of rain to try and help some of these drought-laden areas?
“Yeah, you look at the four days, and it’s just the spitting image of fall. We’ve got highs in the low 70s this afternoon, probably mid- to upper 70s by Saturday. A few areas could crack the 80-degree mark again on Sunday. But looking at mostly sunny skies over these next few days, all of that rain has finally moved out, but that also means we don’t see any rain chances over the next week.
It looks like we will stay in a fairly dry pattern through at least the middle of next week. We should start to see those temperatures warm back up just a little bit by the middle of next week. Maybe some areas getting into the mid-80s. Again, we don’t see any more signs of 90 degrees on the horizon, so that’s good news. That means we’ve at least put the bulk of summer-like weather behind us, but now we’re waiting on that El Niño pattern.
We do expect sometime in the next month or so to start getting more of these wet days and precipitation events. We don’t see that in the short-range forecast just yet, but I think for now we will be very happy just to not have the heat to deal with.”