Well, the first hurricane of this Atlantic season has come and gone, and we have seen devastation across the Gulf. We have also seen some rain come through the Carolinas. Let’s talk about some of the aftermath of Hurricane Isaias. We’ve got State Assistant Climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, talk to us about the impact that Isaias has had in the Carolinas. We saw rain all weekend, and some areas even saw severe weather. So give us an update on what impacts Isaias had on the Carolinas.
“That’s right. It was really a mixed bag of impacts across the Carolinas. In some areas, especially further west, we saw that heavy rain begin Friday night and Saturday morning. At that point, the remnant low-pressure system from Isaias was tracking to our west across Tennessee. Throughout the weekend, we then saw that moisture spread eastward along a warm front on Saturday, and then we saw that trailing cold front come through across the Carolinas on Sunday. That sparked that severe weather, especially across parts of central and eastern North Carolina.
“Looking at the rainfall totals first of all, this was an impactful event in the mountains and foothills of North Carolina. We saw areas like Hendersonville pick up more than 6 inches of rain. That led to some local flooding, including on the roadways out there. And then, as we went further east, we didn’t see as much of the rainfall. The Raleigh area only saw about an inch and a half of rain from this storm, but the big impact there, of course, was the severe weather.
“We saw several tornado warnings active on Sunday afternoon in the Wake County area. The National Weather Service has confirmed two tornadoes of EF1 strength in Wake County. Several others were not far away, including down in the Fayetteville area. And in total, the National Weather Service has confirmed 13 total tornadoes on Sunday in North Carolina. There were also a handful in South Carolina.
“I think one of the amazing coincidences of this whole storm is that the last time we had that many tornadoes in a single day in North Carolina was in August 2020. The culprit was also Hurricane Isaias. So this same storm, or a storm with the same name, is pretty bad news for North Carolina when it comes up. Heard several folks say, ‘It’s time we stop naming storms Isaias at this point.’”
I know normally when they retire a name, they retire it for the entire Atlantic basin. But is there any chance we can just retire Isaias for North Carolina? Because it seems like every time it comes around, there’s at least 10 to 15 tornadoes that pop up and cause damage around the Carolinas.
“Yeah, you know, there are several storms that add to that list. Bertha still comes up every six years. And for folks, especially in the Wilmington area, they will never forget what Bertha was like back in 1996.
“Seriously, looking at the impacts of Isaias, it has been responsible for six deaths down along the Gulf Coast. Fortunately, no deaths confirmed in the Carolinas just yet. Not sure if that meets the bar for retirement, but suffice to say, this was the biggest, strongest and most impactful storm of this Atlantic hurricane season so far, so the season did not come and go without any activity. We did see that local activity, including in the Carolinas, last weekend.”
Let’s take a look at the drought map. Has Isaias improved a lot of the areas here in the Carolinas, or are some areas still in that severe drought stage?
“We’ve seen some small changes this past week, mainly in the Triad area. Places like Winston-Salem had about 2.5 inches of rain. That was enough to improve them from severe drought to just moderate drought. Also, out in parts of the foothills and southern mountains in North Carolina, we’ve seen some small changes, but overall, not a huge difference.
“There’s a few big reasons for that. One is that the heaviest rain fell in areas that were already unclassified. Parts of the foothills that had seen some pretty decent rain going back a month or two ago, that’s where we saw those 7- to 8-inch totals, so there was no more improvement for those places to see.
“Also, we are waiting to see how the moisture from this storm eventually soaks in, whether it lasts or whether it just goes away after another week or so. I have a feeling it will have a lasting impact, at least in improving some of the soil moisture conditions, some of the surface water levels like our lake levels and streamflow in parts of western North Carolina. So I think we can look forward to more improvements in those areas next week.
“On the other hand, in the eastern part of the state, we just didn’t see enough rain to really move the needle on the drought map. Those places that had been in severe to extreme drought saw the least rain this past week. Places like Goldsboro and Rocky Mount only saw about a quarter-inch in total from this system. So they would need some more rain to really be able to chip away at those ongoing drought conditions.”
As we get into the middle of harvest season, let’s take a look at the ag standings and see how some of these farmers and crops are dealing with either the lack of rain or too much rain.
“Yeah, you said it. We are right in the middle of harvest time. At this point, most crops have grown all they’re going to grow. There are a few of those later-planted crops, especially the cotton and the soybeans. They could probably use just a little bit more rain over the next month before their harvest time really gets here.
“But looking at crops like sweet potatoes, that harvest is more than halfway complete now. And the sweet potatoes generally look really good this year. They did not have the same dry-weather impacts like we saw for corn and some of the other crops.
“With that said, we do still see some of the ag reports in North Carolina that are asking for some more rain, and also for different reasons. Up in Bertie County, they are in the middle of the harvest up there. Of course, that is right in the heart of the peanut belt. But they say they need some more rain to flush the salts out of the soils. And that was because early in the growing season, they were using some brackish water to irrigate their crops. That has left those salts behind. So they want to make sure those soils are in good shape as they transition over to the cool season.
“And then up in Warren County, this is another one of those areas that’s been in severe to extreme drought. It’s still too dry to get some of those small grains and fall cover crops planted and to germinate. And that is really important for the soil health in that part of the state. We know we need those crops in the ground to add nutrients. They also help stabilize the soil in the event that we do get some heavy rain over these next few months. So again, that’s another place that’s still looking for a little bit of rain before we get into this last half of the fall.”
So we’re getting toward the halfway point of October. Where are we standing precipitation- and temperature-wise through the first half of October?
“Yeah, it feels like it’s been fall in name only because the temperatures have been very much summer-like for most of the last month and a half. We remember how we started September. Those first three weeks had summer-like weather and 90-degree temperatures. We’ve seen the 90s return this week. In fact, Raleigh had its latest 90-degree day on record. We’ve also seen some record highs in places like Greensboro and Fayetteville well into the upper 80s. Those temperatures are 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year, so that shows how abnormal things have been.
“Also, it’s not a surprise most of eastern North and South Carolina are tracking to have a drier-than-normal fall overall, especially places like New Bern along the central coast. They’re on track for their third-driest start to a fall on record so far.
“Things do look a little bit better further west in some of the places that picked up that rain from the storm last weekend, but again, this reflects the pattern that we’ve been in. Even going back to the spring, we had been overall warm and we had been overall dry, and we’re continuing to see that now as we get to the midpoint of the fall.”
All right, well, let’s take a look at the forecast coming up. I feel like I’ve asked this question quite a few times over the last month. So if it sounds like I’m repeating myself, I apologize. But are the 90-degree temperatures going to be going away this weekend, and do we have a chance of rain to try to help ease the drought map?
“I’ll say we thought we were done with those 90s about three weeks ago in the middle of September, and of course, they’ve come roaring back this week. At this point, it does look like we are probably done with those 90s for the year. If we were to see any more days that hot again, that would just extend the record that we’ve already set this week.
“But we really have one more hot day in store, and that’s today. We should still see those highs making it into the mid- to upper 80s across eastern North and South Carolina. Then we’ll see a cold front that moves through later tonight and overnight into tomorrow morning. That will bring some much cooler air by the weekend. We’re looking at highs in the mid-60s on Saturday and Sunday.
“The main uncertainty with this system is how much moisture there will be and how much rain we might get. Some of the recent forecasts have trended a little bit wetter. They’ve shown maybe up to half an inch or so in the Raleigh area, with some even higher totals down in coastal areas, but still a lot of uncertainty.
“It depends on exactly when this front comes through, how much moisture it’s able to pull in, and even whether we see low-pressure development right along the coastline as that front reaches those areas.
“So for now, I’d say especially on Saturday, be prepared to have an umbrella handy, but don’t count on seeing any rain. That’s because there is, again, a lot of uncertainty with this forecast.
“What we can say is that the next week, starting Monday through Wednesday, looks a lot more like fall. We’re talking about highs in the upper 60s, maybe some low 70s, and especially as folks head out to the North Carolina State Fair, shouldn’t have any rain to worry about early next week. So I think that will be welcome all around with the temperatures and some sunny weather.”