It’s been a tough go for the U.S. agricultural economy so far in 2026. Matt Clark, the interim executive director for Terrain Ag, said the livestock sector entered the year in better shape than the grain producers.
“Unfortunately, we’re off to a bit of a tough start for 2026; there’s no way around that. In some ways, the cattle market had kind of a shock to end 2025. Most of that market has recovered a little bit, so that’s good. Not all the way, but we’ve seen some improvement there, at least in some prices. So, for your cow-calf, guys, they’re doing okay, still. Probably some losses up-chain, but the real struggle right now is on the grain side.”
He said the recent USDA crop production report didn’t help with low crop prices.
“Not only was 2025 a struggle, but we also started off 2026 with an update from the USDA that was probably a little harder than what nearly all of us thought. So, you had a scenario where corn production went higher. Almost everybody was thinking it would go a little bit lower. Soybeans as well. And as a result, we have a lot of stocks to work through in 2026, and the prices are tough. There’s no way around that.”
It’s not just corn and soybean prices that are struggling.
“Wheat’s in that same bus, too, in terms of being difficult on prices. So, from a farm economy standpoint, we’re starting pretty tough, and you see it when you’re out driving kind of around in some of the grain areas. Just kind of hear it when I’m talking with our customers or the customers of Farm Credit. And you see it through some of the telling data, such as tractor sales or combine sales being very, very low — historically low, actually. As a result, I would say we’re starting off 2026 pretty tough.”
Where are producers sitting early in the year and making plans?
“I am still concerned again, I think for your cow-calf guy, they’re doing okay. Hog guys have started to turn the corner. They’re doing all right. There are some current concerns around dairy, but calf prices have been good for them. That’s helped. The concern still on the grain side, as I go into 2026, is still pretty high. What I’ve done mostly is just try to lay out kind of what the cash-flow scenario is going to be with government payments and then with the remaining grain sales. So, if you think about a month and a half or so, we’ll get the farm bridge assistant payments. That’ll be some money. Again, probably not enough to make everyone whole, but again, helpful.”