U.S. agricultural producers are bracing for a shifting economic landscape as significant changes are coming to federal farm programs that could reshape the bottom line for farmers and ranchers. Dr. Amy Hagerman, the extension specialist for agriculture and food policy at Oklahoma State University, said many of the biggest program changes will depend on how fast they’re implemented.
“I think a lot of it is going to be the implementation timelines for the One Big, Beautiful Bill changes for our crop producers, who are probably going to get pushed out for what they’re traditionally used to seeing. A big reason for this is the possibility for an individual producer to actually add crop base to their operation. That’s that historic production acreage number that they have with Farm Service Agency that they use to apply for programs like ARC and PLC over time.”
She said producers have a unique opportunity to make changes to their acreages.
“So, there’s a one-time opportunity across the entire nation to add 30 million acres of new base. This isn’t taking away the old base. This isn’t reassigning old base. It’s if your operation is producing on more acres than the base that you have, you may have the opportunity.”
For producers used to living under the 2018 Farm Bill, she talked about the biggest change that could affect the bottom line in 2026.
“I think the big change for us, especially in this current commodity price market, is that those baseline reference prices increased for most of our major commodities. So, if we’re thinking about wheat, that previous price, that reference price at which the Price Loss Coverage Program would have triggered, was $5.50 a bushel. The new reference price is $6.35 a bushel. So, whenever we look at our kinds of price expectations in the coming year, it’s likely that not only are we going to trigger a PLC payment in the current market environment, but then it will be larger than it would have been under the previous bill. When we reflect on where this current market situation is going, that’s a really powerful change for producers in terms of this safety net.”
There’s another one-time change coming to PLC and ARC.
“Also, and this is a one-time thing for the 2025 crop year, which payments will come out at the end of 2026 for 2025 crop year programs, producers are going to get the highest of the PLC and ARC payments for their base acres. It’s a one-time thing. You don’t have to go back in time and redo your election or anything like that. But if you add new base acres, you won’t get the opportunity to add those for your 2025 crop year. It will only be for your 2026 crop year going forward.”