What does farm income in the U.S. potentially look like for 2026? USDA’s first projections for net farm income for this year indicate: “Net cash farm income is forecast at $158.5 billion, which is an increase of about $4.6 billion, or 3%, in 2025. Net farm income is forecast to fall $1.2 billion, or almost 1%.”
Agriculture Department economist Carrie Litkowski says even with the expected decline in net farm income this year, the forecast would remain above the 20-year average in inflation-adjusted dollars. And as for net cash farm income, when adjusted for inflation, the 2026 forecast reveals a $1.7 billion increase from the previous year.
“Cash receipts from commodity sales are forecast to fall $14 billion, or almost 3%, in 2026, and direct government payments are forecast to increase about $14 billion in 2026.”
On the expense side of the farm ledger, “Total production expenses are forecast to increase almost $5 billion, or 1%.”
And as for the farm sector balance sheet: “Assets, debt and equity are all forecast to increase, with overall worth expected to increase almost 3% from 2025 to 2026.”
Carrie Litkowski next provides the forecast for on-farm business average net income.
“In 2026, it is projected at $135,000. This is an increase of almost 18%.”
Finally, “Median total farm household income in 2026 is forecast at approximately $113,000, an increase of about 5%.”
So, breaking that down by on- and off-farm income projections this year: “Median on-farm income is forecast to increase slightly, at 1%, in 2026 after adjusting for inflation. Median off-farm income is forecast to increase slightly, at 1%, in 2026 after adjusting for inflation.”