Well, as you’re waking up and looking at the weather on your phone, you may see something that you haven’t seen in a long time: 80-degree weather. Spring is almost here, and it looks like we’re already skipping spring, going straight to summer. We’ve got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, let’s talk about the upcoming 80-degree weather, but let’s also talk about the rain that we had last week. Did it finally show some improvement on the drought map?
“Well, Kyle, sometimes I think Mother Nature must have a calendar, because as soon as we slipped from February into March, we have seen this unseasonably warm weather move in. Gone are those 30- and 40-degree days, and now we are looking at 70s and 80s over the next week. We can talk more later in the forecast about exactly how warm it may get, but you’re right. The other big story this week has been the precipitation. Last week we were wrapping up a pretty solid rain event across the Carolinas that was only expected to bring maybe half an inch, but we ended up with pretty widespread totals of an inch or more, including in some parts of eastern North Carolina and also across parts of South Carolina.
“And as a result, we have seen some improvements on this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor map. I know folks had watched that map basically go unchanged during the month of February, and we certainly wondered when we would finally see some improvements. And the answer is now. Down across South Carolina, places from Augusta up through Columbia had 2 to 4 inches of rain over the past week, so they have seen improvements, basically lifting them out of drought. They are now back to just abnormally dry. And then in parts of central and eastern North Carolina, we’ve also seen some improvements. Those areas have been in a more severe drought, but they are at least back in the moderate drought categories. So, I like to think these are positive trends that will keep on going through the spring, and then we can slowly work our way out of this drought one week at a time.”
So, I know we talked about last week the river and lake levels. Did this rain event improve any of those to the point where it’s helping and positively impacting the farmers?
“It did, and in fact, that was one of the big drivers of the changes this week. One thing we noted throughout February is that we would get some of these rain events, mainly on the weekend, that would boost some of those levels temporarily, but then in a few days they would be back below normal. What we finally saw after that rain event last Thursday is that those lake, river and stream levels have sustained themselves pretty much right about normal for this time of the year, especially down across parts of the Cape Fear and Pee Dee River basins, also in the Neuse River Basin — especially from Goldsboro out to the coastline. We’ve seen some really solid stream levels again that have been holding steady since that event.
“We’ve also seen some nice improvements with the lake levels, especially in Jordan Lake. We mentioned last week that it had been on the rise, and it’s actually risen about a foot above its target level for this time of the year. So that is definitely a reason to celebrate, that we are finally seeing some sustained improvements out of this drought. But on the other hand, we do still have some more entrenched dryness, especially with our deeper soil moisture and groundwater levels. Again, it will just take more rain to really replenish those.
“The rainfall deficits also really haven’t changed much. Over the last month, February actually ended up being a little bit drier than normal across parts of North Carolina, so we really didn’t chip away at those deficits like we would want. But again, regular rainfall always helps, and I think when we look at the ag reports from this week, we see that balance where there are some improvements, but also some things that aren’t changing as quickly.
“Looking over the past month, we have seen a nice increase in the topsoil moisture content. The latest USDA NASS report that came out on March 1 showed that we’re down to just 15% of topsoil rated as short or very short in North Carolina. At the beginning of February, that was 40%, so that has been a nice change. But on the other hand, the damage has really been done to a lot of those winter crops. Looking at the pastures, there’s still more than 50% of those in poor to very poor condition. Again, they just missed out on the rain that they needed early in the season and have never really gotten that boost here as we head into the spring.”
So how are the rising levels in the rivers and lakes and the topsoil going to impact farmers as they’re getting ready for planting season?
“Well, what we’re hearing now is that a lot of farmers are at least able to start getting out into the fields. That means it’s not too wet for field work to begin, but they’re probably still a month or so away from planting. What we really want to see over these next few weeks is more regular rainfall events, especially if we can get some daylong soaking rains that will help replenish some of the subsoil moisture levels.
“Also worth noting on this week’s crop progress report that 40% of subsoil moisture in North Carolina is rated as short or very short. So that shows, even though we’ve had those gains with topsoil moisture, the subsoil — those layers just underneath — are still needing a little bit more moisture.”
And I know we talked about this around December. We were talking about a La Niña pattern coming through the Carolinas. Where does that pattern stand as far as possibly being a drier-than-normal winter?
“Yeah, that was one of the big storylines for this winter — the second year in a row that we’ve had this La Niña. Usually that does make us drier than normal. Often it also means warmer-than-normal conditions, but we were actually pretty much average this winter in terms of temperatures. We remember that cold weather that we had back in January and early February, but again, that dryness has been the big story. It was not a record-dry winter, but it was not far off that. We just missed out on so much of that usual precipitation under that La Niña pattern.
“But we are now shifting out of that La Niña as we head into the spring. We’re right on the threshold of getting back into what we call ENSO-neutral conditions. That’s somewhere in between an El Niño and a La Niña event, and it looks like as we go through the next few months, it actually may shift more toward an El Niño, especially by later this year. So, one thing we hope is that that will finally put some of this persistent dryness behind us. Instead, we may see a little bit better rain chances going through the spring. That was the case last year as well. We had a little bit drier weather in March and April, but by the time we got into May, we were fairly wet across the Carolinas.
“So, my prediction is that a month from now we will officially be able to call this La Niña event over with. We will not see that signal in the oceans anymore, and then maybe two to three months from now we’ll stop seeing some of those atmospheric signals with that dry pattern. And again, we can shift over into some more regular spring showers and storms.”
Well, we teased it earlier, but let’s talk about the forecast for this weekend. We’re going to be seeing 80 degrees, but for how long?
“Yeah, I think one of the best ways to put this heat event into context is that our average low temperatures for this time of the year are still in the 30s. Our average afternoon highs are around 60. Well, over the next week, most of our nighttime lows will be around 60, and then those days will be in the upper 70s or even low 80s — definitely well above normal, 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year in early March. And we will definitely be threatening some record highs across parts of the Carolinas, especially if we can break 80 degrees. There could be a couple of spells with some more extreme temperatures.
“One of those is today and into tomorrow. It looks like we should break the 80-degree mark across eastern North and South Carolina by Sunday and Monday. We’ll have a little bit more cloud cover, maybe a little bit more rain coming in. Those days will still make it up into the mid to upper 70s. And then by the middle of next week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, we could very well be back into the 80s again. So that, at least for the first half of March, looks like the story — much warmer-than-normal conditions, and definitely some chances of daytime high records being set over those next two weeks.”
Well, it looks like the pools are going to start reopening very soon based on these temperatures.
“That’s right. I think folks are going to be very eager to start those summer activities. It’s worth noting that the weather pattern at play here is very much a summerlike pattern. We usually talk about this Bermuda high-pressure system that sits right off our coastline, and that is exactly the sort of system that we’re looking at now. And through the weekend it’ll keep funneling in some very warm, very humid air from the south.
“One bit of good news that could bring is that as we get some more moisture moving in, that does help fuel daytime showers and thunderstorms, and especially by Sunday and into Monday, it looks like that’s when we stand the best chance of seeing a little bit of rain. One thing I will caution folks on, though, is planting, especially in your garden. The average last spring freeze date is not until April 1, so I think we are still about a month away from being out of winter’s woods as far as a freeze goes. But again, you would not know it by the temperatures this week, because it will definitely be warm.”