The war in Iran is having a significant impact on U.S. energy and commodity markets. Ed Usset, an ag economist with the University of Minnesota, said the impact is mixed.
“This war is really hard on the equity markets. You look at the stock indexes and oil prices going up. It’s hard on the stock market. It’s good for commodities, soybean prices, and corn prices. Driving the soybean market is soybean oil and renewable diesel. A lot of what drives the corn market is the demand for corn in ethanol production. Those are fuels. Those are energy markets, and this is good for soybean and corn prices, and what the heck, even wheat is following up. It’s creating opportunities for both old and new crop sales.”
He’s concerned about the availability of enough nitrogen for the intended corn acres.
“It’s an issue, and we’ll see it. I don’t know if we will see it in the Planting Intentions Report, because these surveys had gone out, many of them, before this war started. So the data that comes out with the planting intentions report might be a little dated and not up to speed, so we have to be cautious about what we see in that.”
That could mean some corn acres switching to soybeans this spring.
“I have thought for some time, and even more so, now, that the soybean market and prices for new crop in 2026 favor a few more soybean acres, and we’re going to see that.”