Well, it’s that time of year — March Madness is upon us, and a lot of people think it’s just for basketball. Oh no — here in the Carolinas, it’s also a great description of our weather pattern. Over the last seven days, we’ve seen everything from 80-degree highs to 25-degree lows and everything in between. We’ve got state assistant climatologist Corey Davis here. Corey, it has been a wild week of weather. Talk to us about this weather pattern we’ve been seeing.
“Yeah, you said it, Kyle. You know the old saying is, March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb, but we’ve definitely seen that lion-like weather stretching through the middle of the month. One of the big reasons for that is a couple strong cold frontal passages that have happened over the last seven days or so. Ahead of these fronts, we’ve had temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Behind these fronts, we’ve had that cold air coming in from the north and northwest, and that’s dropped those overnight lows down into the 20s and 30s. And that warm air and cold air that meet — you can get some pretty wild, active weather that has included some very strong winds, that has included some severe thunderstorms.
“Back on Monday of this week, one bit of good news is that there was expected to be a pretty wide tornado threat. On Monday, we only had three confirmed tornadoes in western North Carolina. One reason that we really didn’t see that severe weather elsewhere is because it had stayed so cloudy overnight. So, we’re thankful for that, that it wasn’t a more widespread severe weather event. But of course, this is that time of the year where we expect to see those storms, and we can expect to see some of these pretty big temperature swings like we’ve had over the past week.”
Now, you were talking about — you said three tornadoes that we had on Monday in western North Carolina. We also had periods of rain throughout Monday and into Tuesday. How did that dose of rain affect the drought map as we’re getting further into March and closer to spring?
“Yeah, that was definitely the good news out of this past week. With those two frontal passages, we did get a pretty solid dose of rainfall. Most of North Carolina saw between an inch and two inches. Totals were a little bit lower in South Carolina, but still saw a half-inch to inch amounts. What we said all along during this drought is that we were going to need some weeks like this, where we were getting an inch or two, to really chip away at that drought. And that’s exactly what happened this week.
“There were no widespread one-category improvements, but we did see some more localized changes. We were looking at places like the Catawba Valley and the upper Yadkin Valley in western North Carolina. Those areas had an inch and a half to two inches of rain. That was enough to raise those streamflow and river levels, and we were able to push them back into the moderate drought category, where they had been in severe drought. A few pockets of eastern North and South Carolina also saw improvements like that. So again, nothing widespread, no major changes on the map.
“But there was also some good news in terms of impacts. We’re now seeing some of the groundwater wells starting to respond. They’ve been picking up since those latest rain events, and what that is showing is that we are starting to get moisture that’s finally soaking into the upper layers of the soil. Once those upper layers are saturated, that lets that moisture penetrate a little bit deeper and make it into the groundwater stores. So that is a nice sign that the rain we’ve had in February and so far in March is actually making a difference.”
Well, a lot of people — once spring starts — are going to begin planting their gardens. I don’t have a green thumb, so if I do, it’s not going to last long. But a lot of other people do, and I guess they want to know what they need to look ahead to as this planting season — especially in home gardens — approaches.
“Yeah, after those cold days earlier this week, I think a lot of folks are eager for a nice, warm, sunny weekend where they can get outside, start looking at their gardens. And the weather should be very cooperative over the weekend for that. One thing I would encourage is for folks just to dig down in the soil, see how far you have to go before you hit any dryness. We know that rainfall over the last few weeks has made a nice difference in terms of topsoil moisture.
“So, I expect those top probably four to six inches of the soil should be pretty moist now, but once you get maybe six to 12 inches down, you might start to hit a few dry spots. So that’ll be a sign of where we still have some dryness present and where we still need a little bit more rainfall.
“I know one thing folks also think about this time of the year is when they should spray that pre-emergent to prevent some of those weeds. If you look at those bottles of pre-emergent, they’ll usually tell you to wait until the soil temperature is somewhere between 50 and 55 degrees, and we’re basically there — at least across eastern North and South Carolina. Our office has soil temperature sensors that right now are showing temperatures in the 50s at a depth of about four inches. So that’s well within the root zone.
“So, I think it is fair game to go ahead and get that pre-emergent sprayed. One caution I will give for folks getting ready to plant their garden is that we are not out of the woods for a late-season freeze yet. Of course, we had some cold mornings earlier this week, and really until the middle of April, it’s always possible to get one of those freeze events. So, I’d say maybe at least wait until the end of March and then check the weather forecast to see if it looks like there’s any more freezing weather coming up.”
All right, and we’re talking about the forecast — what do we have to look forward to this weekend, and do we have any rain chances going into next week?
“We are back on the temperature roller coaster. We saw some days earlier this week where it struggled to get out of the 30s and 40s. Well, we’ve been pretty seasonable over the last couple of days. Average highs for this time of the year are in the low to mid-60s, and that’s pretty much exactly where we were yesterday. We’ll be even warmer than that, maybe getting into the low 70s this afternoon.
“And then by the weekend, we should be in the upper 70s to low 80s, especially on Sunday, looking at sunny or mostly sunny skies through that entire period. We have a slight chance of showers that will come back on Monday, but we’re not looking at anything too widespread in terms of rainfall.
“The big feature of our weather in this next week is the fire danger. Of course, we are right in the heart of that spring fire season — usually March and April. Those are the times we watch for. We’ve been pretty lucky so far this year. We haven’t had too many big wildfire events, but looking at the forecast for the weekend — when it gets this warm, when the humidity starts to drop — that means this is prime territory for seeing some fires start.
“So, I’d say if folks have some debris in their backyard that they’ve been waiting all winter to burn, maybe don’t do that this weekend, because those fires can very easily spread out of control. We don’t want to create even more problems for the Forest Service and some of our local officials. So that’s what to look for in the next week — again, warming through the weekend, not a lot of rain over the next seven days, but at least a great chance to get out into the garden.”