Many parts of rural America have seen some wild back-and-forth temperature swings combined with on-again, off-again winter weather. John Baranick, an agricultural meteorologist from DTN, said temps we’re seeing a lot of normal temperature swings during the transition from winter to spring.
“We sure are. I mean, this is usually how it works. We’re trying to go from the really cold temperatures in winter to the really hot ones in summer. And when you go through that transition period here, March and April especially, I mean, that’s the perfect time to just ride it. Get some bursts of heat coming through, it won’t last long, and get some cold bursts coming through. They won’t last long, and you just kind of figure out how everything is kind of moving along there. But as long as you can ride the roller coaster and understand that your forecast here for the next two weeks might be changing on a daily basis, quite significantly.”
Forecasters are predicting a switch from a La Niña to an El Niño this year. While a term making rounds on social media predicts a “Godzilla El Niño,” Baranick said it will likely be a strong El Niño, no matter how you refer to it.
“I mean, I guess you could just throw whatever word you want on; gigantic, mega, ultra, whatever, I guess. Use what adjective you want, but there is a pretty significant threat. Well, I don’t know if threat’s the right word, but a possibility is there of a really strong El Niño coming back into play here later this year. El Niño looks almost a guarantee. Things are setting up there in the Pacific Ocean, where it’s going to get warm rather quickly over the next couple of months. Just how warm that’s going to be is a little bit of a question mark, but I think there is potential there for it being really strong.”
The U.S. just had a Super El Niño a few years ago.
“It was just three years ago, 2023, when we had a super El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, and we’re kind of trending that way. A lot of the models are giving the same sort of idea, same shape, almost the same timing, too. Which makes the 2023 season kind of a good analog year to look at when we look at how the weather is going to go through the rest of this year, too. Needless to say, when we get an El Niño, whether it’s a super El Niño or super strong or not, that tends to leave us with some pretty good conditions across the middle of the U.S.”